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Archive for October 2012

Thriller "Taken 2" earns second box office win

Actor Liam Neeson poses before a news conference to promote his movie, ''Taken 2'' in Seoul September 17, 2012. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

Actor Liam Neeson poses before a news conference to promote his movie, ''Taken 2'' in Seoul September 17, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kim Hong-Ji



LOS ANGELES | Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:06pm EDT


LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Liam Neeson thriller "Taken 2" won a battle between two hostage movies over the weekend, holding on to its top box office rankings for a second week with $22.5 million from ticket sales at U.S. and Canadian theaters.


Ben Affleck's highly praised Iran hostage thriller "Argo" was as close second, earning $20.1 million from Friday through Sunday. Low-budget horror movie "Sinister" came in third with $18.3 million, according to studio estimates compiled by Reuters.


Action sequel "Taken 2" stars Neeson as a former CIA agent who is captured while on vacation in Istanbul. The movie has pulled in $86.8 million at North American (U.S. and Canadian) theaters since its debut a week ago, plus $132.8 million from international markets.


"We continue to play broadly across all demographics and it is a testament to the strength of Liam's character and the property," said Chris Aronson, president of domestic distribution at 20th Century Fox, which released the film.


With a worldwide box office total already reaching nearly $220 million, he said the film was close to equaling the final box office total of the first "Taken" movie ($226.8 million), and therefore labeled the sequel as "a much bigger movie."


"Taken 2" sales outpaced receipts for "Argo," a movie that Affleck stars in and directs. The film is based on a real-life CIA plot to smuggle six U.S. diplomats out of Iran in 1979 under the guise of a fake movie production.


The diplomats had escaped the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran at the height of the Islamic revolution. They hid at the Canadian embassy until a CIA agent came to sneak them out of the country.


"Argo" is generating buzz as an Oscar contender after earning stellar marks from critics, with 94 percent of reviews collected on the Rotten Tomatoes website praising the film. Ahead of the weekend, box-office forecasters had predicted an opening of $15 million or more.


"The movie is like the perfect storm, everything came together at the right time," said Dan Fellman, president of theatrical distribution for Warner Bros, noting that the combination of the film's appeal to all ages combined with critical acclaim and awards season buzz would spell a long commercial run.


"It's going to have legs," he said. "Critical acclaim is going to translate into commercial success."


Warner Bros. and GK Films paid about $44 million to produce the movie.


Sales for third-place film "Sinister" came in more than 6 times its tiny $3 million production budget. The movie stars Ethan Hawke as a crime novelist who moves into a new house and finds disturbing home movies. It was produced by Jason Blum, producer of the hit "Paranormal Activity" series of horror flicks.


Family film "Hotel Transylvania" held on to the No. 4 spot during its third weekend in theaters, pulling in $17.3 million. Total domestic sales since its debut reached $102.2 million.


New comedy "Here Comes the Boom," earned $12 million and landed in fifth place. The $40-million film stars Kevin James as a high-school biology teacher who competes in mixed martial arts to raise money for his school.


Another new entry, comedy "Seven Psychopaths," earned ninth place, grossing $4.3 million from a medium-sized run in about 1,500 theaters. The film stars Colin Farrell and Woody Harrelson in the story of a screenwriter who gets wrapped up in criminal activity after his friends kidnap a gangster's dog.


The movie, which won an 89 percent positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, cost $15 million to make. It will expand to more theaters in two weeks.


Warner Bros., a unit of Time Warner Inc, released "Argo." "Taken 2" was distributed by News Corp's 20th Century Fox studio. Summit Entertainment, owned by Lions Gate Entertainment, released "Sinister."


Sony Corp's movie studio distributed "Hotel Transylvania" and "Here Comes the Boom." CBS Films, a unit of CBS Corp, released "Seven Psychopaths."


(Additional reporting by Christine Kearney, editing by Doina Chiacu and Gunna Dickson)


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Bernanke defends Fed stimulus as China, Brazil raise concerns

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks at the Economic Club of Indiana in Indianapolis October 1, 2012. REUTERS/Brent Smith

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks at the Economic Club of Indiana in Indianapolis October 1, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Brent Smith



TOKYO | Sun Oct 14, 2012 3:03pm EDT


TOKYO (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Sunday said it was far from clear that the U.S. central bank's highly stimulative monetary policy hurts emerging economies, defending a policy raising concerns in China, Russia and Brazil.


In a blunt call for certain emerging economies to allow their currencies to rise, he also said that foreign exchange intervention encouraged destabilizing inflows of foreign capital, but he did not specify China by name.


"The perceived advantages of undervaluation and the problem of unwanted capital inflows must be understood as a package - you can't have one without the other," Bernanke said in Tokyo.


Bernanke has often defended Fed actions against domestic critics, who argue the policy of keeping interest rates near zero while ramping up asset purchases hurts savers and risks future inflation.


But in the Tokyo speech, Bernanke addressed critics abroad, saying stronger growth in the United States bolsters global prospects as well, countering the likes of Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega who has labeled the Fed's latest stimulus effort "selfish".


Critics say the Fed's unorthodox policies weaken the U.S. dollar and boost the currencies of developing countries, hurting their ability to export.


"It is not at all clear that accommodative policies in advanced economies impose net costs on emerging market economies," Bernanke said at an event sponsored by the Bank of Japan and the International Monetary Fund. While the speech was delivered in private, the Fed provided a text to the media.


Restating a theme that he has addressed in the past, the Fed chief also said that if emerging economies stopped intervening and allowed their currencies to rise, this would help insulate their financial systems from external pressure.


"Under a flexible exchange-rate regime, a fully independent monetary policy, together with fiscal policy as needed, would be available to help counteract any adverse effects of currency appreciation on growth," Bernanke said.


The Fed last month announced a new program of open-ended bond purchases that will be continued until there is substantial improvement in labor market conditions, barring a sustained and unexpected spike in inflation.


To start off, the central bank will buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month.


"This policy not only helps strengthen the U.S. economic recovery, but by boosting U.S. spending and growth, it has the effect of helping support the global economy as well," he said.


FRIEND OR FOE


In 2010, when the Fed launched its second round of monetary policy stimulus, known as quantitative easing, many finance ministers around the world accused the United States of pursuing a beggar-thy-neighbor policy.


Criticism of the current round of bond purchases, known as QE3, has been more muted, but nonetheless evident.


Brazil's Mantega told the IMF's 188 member countries in Tokyo on Friday that the policy was "selfish" and harming emerging markets both by stealing their share of exports and by spurring destabilizing capital flows and currency movements.


"Advanced countries cannot count on exporting their way out of the crisis at the expense of emerging market economies," he told the IMF's governing panel. "Brazil, for one, will take whatever measures it deems necessary to avoid the detrimental effects of these spillovers."


In opening remarks at the conference that Bernanke addressed on Sunday, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said aggressive steps by the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan were "big policy actions in the right direction."


But she took note of the distress those policies were causing elsewhere and called for central banks to step-up their dialogue and cooperation.


"Accommodative monetary policies in many advanced economies are likely to entail large and volatile capital flows to emerging economies," she said. "This could ... lead to (economic) overheating, asset price bubbles and the buildup of financial imbalances."


Critics of the Fed's policy, both foreign and domestic, contend it is likely to do little to help the U.S. economy, while risking unwanted inflation.


Central banks "should consider draining excessive liquidity injected into the market and eliminate inflationary pressure in the long-term," People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan was quoted as saying by the official state news agency Xinhua, which cited the Journal of Public Research, a PBOC magazine.


Russia also is worried.


"Everything is getting done, from my perspective, blindly, without regard to the consequences it could have," Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters in Tokyo.


"NO PANACEA"


For his part, Bernanke stressed that inflation in the United States was projected to run below the Fed's 2 percent goal over the next few years.


And while he admitted that QE3 was "no panacea," he argued the open-ended nature of the third round of bond buying makes the program more flexible and should make people feel more certain that U.S. economic growth, which registered a paltry annual pace of 1.3 percent in the second quarter, will pick up.


"An easing in financial conditions and greater public confidence should help promote more rapid economic growth and faster job gains over coming quarters," Bernanke said.


In response to the financial crisis and deep recession of 2007-2009, the Fed cut overnight interest rates to near zero and bought some $2.3 trillion in mortgage and U.S. Treasury securities to try to stimulate spending and boost employment.


U.S. job growth remains lackluster, but the unemployment rate did fall to 7.8 percent in September, its lowest in nearly four years.


For Bernanke, what is good for the world's largest economy is ultimately good for the world as well.


"Assessments of the international impact of U.S. monetary policies should give appropriate weight to their beneficial effects on global growth and stability," he said.


(Writing by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa in Washington and Tim Ahmann in Tokyo; Additional reporting by Anna Yukhananov in Tokyo and Alister Bull in Washington: Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)


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Asian shares ease on corporate earnings worry

A man clicks his nails as he looks at an electronic board displaying share prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo September 20, 2012. REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao

1 of 5. A man clicks his nails as he looks at an electronic board displaying share prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo September 20, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Yuriko Nakao



TOKYO | Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:54pm EDT


TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Monday on growth concerns ahead of the third-quarter corporate earnings season, lifting the safe-haven dollar which in turn undermined commodities.


As risk sensitive assets retreated, the dollar index .DXY measured against a basket of six major currencies gained 0.4 percent.


A stronger dollar and worries that a slowing global economy may further dent fuel demand pushed U.S. crude futures down more than $1 to $90.82 a barrel. Brent fell 0.6 percent to $113.99.


The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.3 percent.


Tokyo's Nikkei average .N225 was down 0.1 percent. .T


U.S. stocks wrapped up their worst week in four months, led lower on Friday by financial shares. More financial institutions will report earnings in coming days, including Citigroup (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N), amid concerns about their shrinking profit margins.


"People are just cautious, quite reluctant. It is not only equities, it is property and a whole range of asset classes, people are happy to have the money in the bank rather than put it to work," said Burrell & Co director Richard Herring.


"We will probably need a good earnings reporting season out of the U.S. or a change in the environment here - a more certain outlook," Herring said.


A decline in Chinese consumer and producer prices in September left scope for policy easing to underpin growth.


Data over the weekend from China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, offered some positive news, suggesting government moves to underpin growth are working and additional policy action may not be needed.


China's broad M2 money supply rose more than expected in September while its exports grew at roughly twice the rate expected in September and imports recovered.


"The better than expected upswing in Chinese exports follows similar outcomes for Taiwan and Korea and may be consistent with a bottoming in global manufacturing PMIs in suggesting a possible stabilization or improvement in global growth," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital.


Commodity currencies failed to cling to an early lift, with the Australian dollar falling 0.6 percent to $1.0204, close to the near three-month low of $1.0149 plumbed a week ago.


US POSES RISK


The encouraging Chinese data could not completely dispel concerns about the global slowdown, with the euro zone's prolonged debt crisis dragging on.


Investors should brace for three or four months of jittery markets due to uncertainty over support for Spain and the looming "fiscal cliff" threatening the U.S. economy, BlackRock Chief Executive Laurence Fink told Reuters on Saturday. Fink warned that the U.S. stock market could lose 5 to 10 percent in a correction in the final months of the year.


"Markets have yet to fully reflect concerns about the 'fiscal cliff' but the issue represents a major downside risk," Takao Hattori, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo said .


Orders related to the U.S. military industry may feel the pinch as automatic across-the-board budget cuts set to begin on January 2 if there is no deal on deficit reductions, Hattori added.


The era of rising Western spending on weapons and wars is over, providing a more challenging environment for major arms manufacturers.


Hattori also said markets have been supported by expectations and hopes, rather than conviction, over how Europe will resolve its debt crisis.


The euro slipped 0.4 percent to $1.2897 as Europe muddles through debt relief measures for Spain and Greece.


Investors expect highly-indebted Spain to request assistance, triggering the European Central Bank's program to buy bonds of struggling euro zone states that ask for aid.


They also hope Europe will not allow Greece to leave the currency union.


Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has said his government expects to agree a new austerity package with its lenders and for the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to bridge their differences on how to cut the country's debt by the time EU leaders meet on October 18-19.


Euro zone officials are considering new ways to reduce Greece's huge debts because delays to reforms by Athens and continued recession have put the target of a debt to GDP ratio of 120 percent in 2020 out of reach, euro zone officials said.


Euro zone officials also said Spain could ask for financial aid from the euro zone in November.


Asian credit markets weakened, with the spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index widening by 2 basis points.


(Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney and Victoria Thieberger in Melbourne; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)


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Television host and actor Gary Collins dies at age 74


Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:54pm EDT


n">(Reuters) - Television host and actor Gary Collins died early on Saturday in Biloxi, Mississippi, of natural causes at the age of 74, according to the local coroner's office.


Collins was admitted to the Biloxi Regional Medical Center less than 24 hours before he was pronounced dead at 12:56 a.m., according to Brian Switzer, deputy coroner at the Harrison County Coroner's Office.


He starred in the 1970s TV series "The Sixth Sense" and appeared in other series including "JAG," "Yes, Dear" and "The Young and the Restless," as well as on "The New Hollywood Squares" game show.


He is survived by his wife, Mary Ann Mobley, a former Miss America from Brandon, Mississippi, and the couple spent some of their time in the state. Collins had been a host of the Miss America pageant.


In January 2011, he was accused of skipping out on a $59.35 restaurant tab in Biloxi, which in Mississippi is a felony. Those charges were later dropped but not before Collins was arrested in his Biloxi home after the restaurant's employees called the police.


In 2007, Collins was sentenced to four days in jail as the result of a car wreck in California. Police blamed that accident on the driver of the other car, though Collins pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge of driving under the influence.


In the 1980s, he hosted talk shows "Hour Magazine" and "The Home Show."


(Editing by Eric Beech)


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Softbank nears $20 billion deal for 70 percent of Sprint: sources

People walk in front of a logo of Softbank Corp at its branch in Tokyo, in this file picture taken March 2, 2011. Japan's Softbank Corp said on October 12, 2012 that it is in talks with Sprint Nextel Corp about investing in the U.S. telecoms firm, but nothing has been decided. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/Files

1 of 6. People walk in front of a logo of Softbank Corp at its branch in Tokyo, in this file picture taken March 2, 2011. Japan's Softbank Corp said on October 12, 2012 that it is in talks with Sprint Nextel Corp about investing in the U.S. telecoms firm, but nothing has been decided.

Credit: Reuters/Toru Hanai/Files



NEW YORK/TOKYO | Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:13pm EDT


NEW YORK/TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese mobile operator Softbank Corp is near a $20 billion deal to acquire control of U.S. carrier Sprint Nextel Corp, sources familiar with the matter said, as the firm led by billionaire Masayoshi Son seeks a foothold in the U.S. market.


A deal, which the sources said could be announced as early as Monday, would be Japan's biggest overseas buy, and would also give Sprint ammunition to potentially acquire peers and build out its 4G network to compete better in a U.S. wireless market dominated by AT&T and Verizon.


Softbank shares tumbled more than 7 percent early on Monday, and have lost more than a fifth of their value since news first broke of the firm's interest in Sprint. Investors are concerned that Son, who has a reputation for taking risks, may be offering too much.


Under the deal taking shape, the sources said Softbank would buy some $12 billion worth of Sprint shares and spend another $8 billion on new Sprint securities. The Japanese firm would initially buy $3 billion of bonds convertible into Sprint stock at $5.25 a share, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. It would also buy $5 billion in stock directly from Sprint, and offer $7.30 a share for stock it buys in the public markets. Sprint closed on Friday at $5.73.


Sprint, led by CEO Dan Hesse, has net debt of about $15 billion, while Softbank has net debt of about $10 billion. Adding the $2 billion of net debt of eAccess Ltd, which Softbank recently agreed to buy, would raise "post-deal gearing levels to unacceptable heights", Societe Generale said in a client note on Friday.


"It's the same (market) reaction as when Softbank said it was going to buy Vodafone a few years ago. Everyone came out and said it was far too expensive," said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, general manager of investment and research at SMBC Friend Securities.


Softbank acquired Vodafone's Japan unit for $15.5 billion in a landmark deal in 2006 that propelled the firm into the mobile carrier business.


CLEAR FOR CLEARWIRE


Sprint confirmed on Thursday it was in talks with Softbank about an investment that could involve a change in control. If Softbank takes a 70 percent stake of Sprint for $20 billion, that would imply the No. 3 U.S. wireless company was worth about $28.6 billion, some two-thirds greater than its market capitalization at Friday's close.


On Friday, Standard & Poor's put its "BBB" long-term rating on Softbank on 'credit watch with negative implications', saying the deal "may undermine Softbank's financial risk profile" and would pressure its free operating cash flow for at least the next few years.


A tie-up between Sprint and Softbank could see the U.S. firm use some of the proceeds to buy the part of Clearwire Corp it doesn't already own, given that company's attractive spectrum assets, analysts and investors have said. Clearwire stock soared on Friday.


An alliance with Sprint could also give Softbank leverage when dealing with Apple Inc, helping bolster its domestic position against KDDI Corp, which also now offers the iPhone in Japan, and market leader NTT Docomo, which is yet to offer the Apple smartphone.


A Tokyo-based Softbank spokesman reiterated on Monday that the company was in talks about making an investment in Sprint, but no agreement had been reached. Sprint representatives were not immediately available to comment, and a Clearwire spokesman declined to comment. CNBC's David Faber reported the news earlier on Sunday.


Softbank is in talks with Japan's leading banks - Mizuho Financial Group Inc, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group - to borrow up to $23 billion for a deal, people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.


The banks involved in the syndicated loan could provide a commitment letter as soon as this week, the sources said.


A deal for Sprint at around the levels mentioned by sources - and including a follow-on deal for MetroPCS - would lift the tally of outbound deals by Japanese firms to a record $80 billion this year, Thomson Reuters data shows, underscoring a strong appetite for overseas assets seemingly unaffected by signs of slowing global growth.


SECOND STEP


With Sprint in hand, Softbank may also look to acquire smaller U.S. carrier MetroPCS Communications, Japanese media have reported. Sprint has had a long interest in MetroPCS, which earlier this month agreed to merge with T-Mobile USA, part of Deutsche Telekom AG.


A takeover of Sprint would require approval from U.S. regulators, including the Justice Department and the Federal Communications Commission. Given the importance of telecommunications to U.S. national security, any deal would also likely warrant a review by the inter-agency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, according to one Washington-based attorney who advises on mergers and acquisitions


The attorney said that Japan's status as a close U.S. ally would help Softbank win approval for the deal.


($1 = 78.3550 Japanese yen)


(Additional reporting by Sophie Knight, James Topham and Andrea Shalal-Esa.; Editing by Gunna Dickson and Ian Geoghegan)


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Five issues that could derail your refinancing

Hakan Tale (R), listens to Joseph Sant, a lawyer at Staten Island Legal Services, as Sant explains the latest round of paper work from Chase Bank regarding a denied loan modification application for Tale's mortgage, in Staten Island, New York, December 9, 2011. REUTERS/Andrew Burton

Hakan Tale (R), listens to Joseph Sant, a lawyer at Staten Island Legal Services, as Sant explains the latest round of paper work from Chase Bank regarding a denied loan modification application for Tale's mortgage, in Staten Island, New York, December 9, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Andrew Burton



NEW YORK | Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:00am EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The TV and radio ads make it all seem so easy. Walk into a lender's office, refinance your home loan at a rock-bottom rate, and walk out with a lower monthly payment.


Here's a little tip: It's not so easy.


If you know the pitfalls, you can at least prepare for them - and perhaps chart a wiser course. A few issues that could have your application earmarked for the ‘Rejected' pile:


1. Heightened credit score demands


If you're refinancing, that means you've successfully secured a home loan already. But since then, lenders have started to demand near-pristine credit scores. "Now to get access to the lowest rates, you need a FICO score above 740," says Keith Gumbinger, VP of mortgage information site HSH.com.


Not quite the perfect score of 850, but still quite challenging to achieve. Credit scorer FICO does not break out the average number for refi applicants, but the national average is 690 -- well below what will get you prime lending rates.


2. Low appraisal


While interest rates have gone down, so have U.S. home values. The average home value dropped a third from the start of 2007 to the start of 2012, according to housing analytics firm Fiserv. For refinancing, that's a problem.


Chicago's Jesse Raub and his wife have owned a home for about three years, and recently started the refi process. But then the appraisal came in low.


"Beware that the appraised value of your home may not be what you think it should be," says Raub, 27, who's a trainer and educator for Intelligentsia Coffee. "Our new mortgage amount was close to the total value of the home - which required us to get mortgage insurance as well."


3. A home equity line of credit


You may have forgotten that you once took out a home equity line of credit. You may have not even touched a penny of it. But it could still derail a refi, because it means another lender has a claim on the value of the home.


"If you're refinancing your first mortgage, the lender of the home-equity line has to agree to that," says Mike Fratantoni, vice president of research for the Washington, D.C.-based Mortgage Bankers Association.


Essentially, that lender needs to sign off on being second in line, and agree that the primary mortgage will always be paid off first (in the event of a foreclosure, for instance). "There may be fees associated with that, and so a home-equity line of credit is one more thing that could make a refi more difficult."


4. Condo or co-op troubles


If lenders are going to fork over hundreds of thousands of dollars, they don't want any issues to make them nervous. And when the property is subject to decisions of an unpredictable board of directors, that can make them nervous.


"Any number of issues might trip you up," says Gumbinger. "If the building finances aren't in good shape, or if the insurance isn't paid up, or if there are any units in foreclosure, or if there are any lawsuits against the condo association, or if the building is comprised largely of renters. All kinds of fun stuff can arise."


5. Timeliness requirements


Banks want to see the most up-to-date financial information possible before they sign off on a mortgage. But they also have a tendency to ask for document after document after document regarding your financial situation. If the refi process has ballooned to 60 or even 90 days, but they require documents from the last 30 days, that could put you on a carousel of paperwork straight from the ninth circle of hell.


So get out your yoga mat, breathe deeply, and have a mantra ready. You're going to need lots of patience. "Expect the worst," advises Erin Lantz, director of the mortgage marketplace for real estate site Zillow.com. "If you come to terms with that at the beginning, it will remove the stress later on."


(Follow us @ReutersMoney or here Editing by Beth Pinsker Gladstone)


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Welcome to Hell: The joys of refinancing

A ''Price Reduced'' sign is displayed on a home for sale in northern Virginia suburb of Vienna, outside Washington, October 27, 2010. REUTERS/Larry Downing

A ''Price Reduced'' sign is displayed on a home for sale in northern Virginia suburb of Vienna, outside Washington, October 27, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Larry Downing



NEW YORK | Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:57am EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - For Scott Laperruque, every day is Groundhog Day.


That's because the commercial photographer from Short Hills, New Jersey is refinancing his house for a rate of 4 percent. Trying to, anyway. And every time he wakes up, just like Bill Murray in that classic film, he discovers he's living the same day all over again.


"The bank will ask for one document, and a week will go by," says Laperruque, 55, who now pays 5.75 percent and would save almost $400 a month if his refinancing would close. But the bank keeps asking for more, and more, and then because they have to have everything within a 30-day period, they have to re-ask for things like payroll stubs.


"It's a constant round robin of new documents and expiring documents, all at the same time, and it's been going on for months. I'm about to blow my stack," he says. "The only conclusion I can come to is that everyone at the bank is making money by kicking around my application. The longer they keep it up, the longer they keep their jobs. I just don't know."


Sound familiar? If you're one of those who were involved in the $858 billion in refis for 2011, or the more than $1 trillion estimated for this year, it probably does. The constant news that mortgage rates are hovering near record lows - the current average for a 30-year fixed loan is 3.44 percent, according to Bankrate.com -- has brought out legions of homeowners, who have been trying to secure new loans and reduce their monthly nut.


But if you assume that refis are a relative breeze, you're wrong. They're treated exactly the same as an entirely new loan, and contain all the challenges that come with that. First of all, lenders are swamped with applications, meaning the pipeline has gotten pretty clogged. Second, banks are still cautious in the wake of the subprime mortgage bust that saw so many homeowners unable to make payments.


"It's definitely become a much more rigorous process," says Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research for the Mortgage Bankers Association. "There are multiple checks of every data point along the way, all of which needs to be fully documented and verified. Everyone should be aware that lenders have become very meticulous."


After you deluge banks with the necessary documents, they still come back with an endless series of questions. Missed a bill payment because it was stashed in a drawer? Be prepared to explain yourself. Your parents sent you a check for your birthday? Have that fact notarized, please.


There's also the nagging question of whether your lender really wants to refi at all. If your current bank has you locked in at 6 percent, say, why would they ever want to give you 3.5 percent? It would seem that the more they drag the process out, the more interest they collect at the old, higher rate.


"It's a good question, and a lot of homeowners wonder about that," says Polyana da Costa, senior mortgage analyst for financial information site Bankrate.com. "But in fact they do want to refinance your loan, because they make money on it all sorts of ways - like collecting origination fees, underwriting fees, and then by selling that mortgage to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. If they seem like they're dragging their feet, it's probably just because they're totally overwhelmed right now."


TROUBLE AT THE CONDO


Whatever the reasoning, it's left Scott Laperruque twiddling his thumbs in refi purgatory since May. And that's for a single-family home (with a separate living area for his mother-in-law), which used to be relatively straightforward. When you're part of a building with multiple owners, like a co-op or condo, the number of problematic issues can metastasize.


Just ask Brooklyn's Val Vinokur. He's a 40-year-old associate professor of literary studies at The New School, looking to convert his 30-year fixed mortgage of 5.75 percent to a 15-year-fixed at a rock-bottom 3 percent. He and his wife have solid jobs, good credit, and plenty of equity in the apartment.


Simple, right? Not so much. So far Vinokur, who was born in Moscow in 1972 before immigrating to the United States seven years later, likens the refinancing process to the novels of surrealist Franz Kafka ("The Trial") or Arthur Koestler, author of anti-totalitarian works like "Darkness At Noon."


"It all hinges on getting the financials from the co-op, which seems to be taking forever," says Vinokur. "The mortgage broker doesn't like the management company, and vice versa. I haven't pulled my hair out yet, but I anticipate reaching that point. But then I'm Soviet, so I have a pretty high tolerance for bureaucratic nonsense."


THE BIG TEASE


Even when the bank seems locked and loaded to give you a new loan, the process can still get derailed and leave you emotionally spent. That's what happened to Amrita Barth, 38, a Brooklyn lawyer and mom of two. She and her husband bought a home in the Greenwood Heights neighborhood almost three years ago, got a mortgage at 5.5 percent, and subsequently put in a host of new upgrades.


When they tried to refinance at 4.5 percent in the fall of 2011, they got waylaid at the appraiser stage a couple of months into the process. "It was extremely frustrating," says Barth. "He spent five minutes in a four-story house, and appraised it for less than we bought it at, despite $200,000 in renovations. So the bank said we'd have to put in even more cash to get the same rate, and we had to drop the idea."


Adding insult to injury, Barth had already spent a lot prepping for the refi, including paying the appraiser almost $1,000 for his rock-bottom valuation. Once it fell through, that was money she was not getting back.


Lucky for her, interest rates kept falling. So when the couple decided to take another stab at a refi this summer, they got 4 percent - and a higher appraisal. They just closed on the deal, but still feel like they've been through the wringer.


"It's been so annoying," she says. "And it's very hard not to take it all personally."


Money is an emotional subject, so it's no wonder refi applicants are getting so stressed out. "It's like a big tease," says Maggie Baker, a Philadelphia psychologist and author of "Crazy About Money." "You put up with the whole process and have such high hopes, and then in the final moments you might be told you're just not good enough. So it can be very frustrating, and there's a big potential for disappointment."


As for Scott Laperruque, he keeps waiting for the day when the refi is approved, the new interest rate kicks in, and his monthly payment drops. But that day still has not arrived.


"It's a never-ending process," he sighs. "I want it to end - but it just won't."


(Follow us @ReutersMoney or here Editing by Beth Pinsker Gladstone; Editing by David Gregorio)


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Home owners file class action suit versus banks over Libor: FT

The letter ''B'' of the signage on the Barclays headquarters in Canary Wharf is hoisted up the side of the building in London July 20, 2012. REUTERS/Simon Newman

The letter ''B'' of the signage on the Barclays headquarters in Canary Wharf is hoisted up the side of the building in London July 20, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Simon Newman

LONDON | Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:24pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Home owners have filed a class action suit in New York against 12 of the world's major banks, claiming that Libor manipulation made mortgage repayments more expensive than they should have been, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

It is the first class-action lawsuit filed by home owners, according to the newspaper, which said other class action suits have been brought by investors and municipalities.

The five lead plaintiffs include Annie Bell Adams, a pensioner who had her home repossessed and whose subprime mortgage was securitized into Libor-based collateralized debt obligations and sold by banks to investors, the FT said.

The suit alleges that traders at banks in Europe and North America, including Barclays (BARC.L), Bank of America (BAC.N) and UBS (UBSN.VX), were incentivized to manipulate the London interbank offered rate to a higher rate on certain dates on which adjustable mortgage interest rates were reset.

This resulted in homeowners paying more between 2000 and 2009, the FT quoted the complaint as saying.

The plaintiffs, who have lost thousands of dollars each, could number 100,000, their Alabama-based attorney John Sharbrough was quoted by the FT as saying. He declined to give a figure on the total damages his clients are seeking.

Faith in the Libor interest rate system, which underpins more than $300 trillion of contracts and loans from U.S. mortgages to Japanese interest-rate swaps, plummeted after Barclays was fined in June for rigging it. Other banks are under investigation.

(Reporting by Stephen Mangan; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)


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Richter painting sale sets record for living artist

Visitors look at Gerhard Richter's ''Abstraktes Bild (809-4) from 1994 which has an estimated value of £9 to £12 million (US$14.1-$18.8 million) at Sotheby's London October 8, 2012. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett

Visitors look at Gerhard Richter's ''Abstraktes Bild (809-4) from 1994 which has an estimated value of £9 to £12 million (US$14.1-$18.8 million) at Sotheby's London October 8, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Suzanne Plunkett

LONDON | Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:54am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - An abstract painting by German artist Gerhard Richter has a set a new record for the price paid at auction for the work of a living artist, after selling for $34.2 million, Sotheby's auction house in London said.

"Abstraktes Bild (809-4)", from the collection of rock guitarist Eric Clapton, was sold to anonymous buyer after five minutes of bidding late on Friday, triggering a round of applause.

The sale smashed the previous 2010 record of $28.6 million paid for Jasper Johns' "Flag" at Christie's auction house in New York in 2010.

Richter's red, yellow and black oil on canvas had been estimated to fetch $14-19 million.

"The combination of outstanding provenance and gold-standard quality in this sublime work by this blue-chip artist made for an historic auction moment," said Alex Branczik, senior director at Sotheby's and head of the sale.

The top end of the art market has performed strongly in recent years despite a faltering global economy.

($1 = 1.0000 US dollars)

(Reporting by Mohammed Abbas; Editing by Pravin Char)


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Portugal faces suffocating 2013 budget


LISBON | Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:02pm EDT


LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal's center-right government presents its 2013 budget on Monday, which will outline the harshest measures yet under Lisbon's 78-billion-euro bailout and is likely to mark the end of the country's so far reluctant acceptance of austerity.


The budget will face immediate opposition from angry Portuguese, who plan to march on parliament to demand the resignation of the government and an end to austerity, which has sent Portugal into its worst recession since the 1970s.


The 2013 budget is set to introduce sharp income tax hikes, which could amount to up to two or three months' wages for middle income workers, to ensure the country meets its budget goals under the bailout. Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar has described the planned tax increases as "enormous."


Economists fear that the tough measures, which will also include pension cuts, a financial transaction tax and higher property taxes, could push Portugal into a recessive spiral like Greece, further undermining Europe's German-inspired austerity drive for the euro's highly-indebted countries.


The austerity moves in the 2013 budget came after the government announced last month a rise in social security contributions, which it subsequently dropped after mass protests erupted. The opposition to the alternative tax measures is set to be equally strong.


Even Portugal's conservative president, Anibal Cavaco Silva, criticized the budget measure. "In the current circumstances, it is not correct to demand of a country being subjected to a budget adjustment process that it meets the targets at any cost," Cavaco Silva wrote on his Facebook page.


Before September, Portugal had shown a relatively high level of political consensus and support for cutting costs and the bailout it sought in 2011. But that support has been eroded, with the main opposition Socialists now pledging to vote against the budget when it is put to parliament at the end of the month.


Protests have now become frequent, though still peaceful. A general strike is planned for November 14.


LAST MINUTE DEBATE


The ruling center-right Social Democrats hold a comfortable majority in parliament together with their smaller allies, the rightist CDS. But the CDS has a long history of opposing higher taxes and analysts say the party's complete support of the government can no longer be taken for granted, especially if the economy deteriorates further.


Local media reported that the government was still locked in an internal debate at the weekend on the possibility of finding more areas for spending cuts in order to ease the tax hikes. The budget is expected to be detailed on Monday afternoon.


The economy is expected to contract at least 3 percent this year and the government expects a contraction of just 1 percent in 2013 -- a forecast widely doubted by economists. Unemployment is already at record highs above 15 percent and the government expects it to rise to 16.4 percent next year.


The 2013 draft budget may include new economic forecasts for next year.


This year's budget performance was undermined by tax revenues falling short of expectations as the recession deepened and unemployment rose beyond government forecasts.


(Reporting By Axel Bugge; Editing by Rosalind Russell)


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Swedish House Mafia pip Adele to top of UK pop chart

LONDON | Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:55pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Scandinavian DJ group Swedish House Mafia piped Adele's Bond movie song "Skyfall" to the top of the singles chart this week, while London-based folk band Mumford And Sons nudged up one place to number one in a tumultuous week in the album chart.

The Official Charts Company on Sunday said Swedish House Mafia's "Don't You Worry Child" had outsold Skyfall 43,000 copies to secure their fifth singles chart top 10 hit and first number one.

X-Factor talent show winner Leona Lewis was the only other new entry in the top 10, with "Trouble" featuring Childish Gambino, her ninth top 10 hit.

Mumford And Sons dominated the albums chart with their second full-length release, "Babel", while second place went to Ellie Goulding with "Halcyon".

U.S. pop punks All Time Low went straight in at number nine this week with "Don't Panic", but Birmingham rockers ELO with "Mr. Blue Sky - The Very Best Of Electric Light Orchestra" were one step ahead at number eight.

(Reporting by Mohammed Abbas)


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Bruce Springsteen to campaign for Obama in Ohio, Iowa

Bruce Springsteen performs with the E Street Band during a concert in East Rutherford, New Jersey, September 19, 2012. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

Bruce Springsteen performs with the E Street Band during a concert in East Rutherford, New Jersey, September 19, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Lucas Jackson



WILLIAMSBURG, Virginia | Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:55pm EDT


WILLIAMSBURG, Virginia (Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney may have Clint Eastwood on his side, but President Barack Obama has Bruce Springsteen.


The rock star will perform at campaign rallies for the president in the battleground states of Ohio and Iowa on Thursday, the Obama campaign said.


His appearances come as the president's team is ramping up efforts to turn out supporters before the November 6 election. Obama and Romney are running neck and neck in national polls after the Republican's strong performance in their October 3 debate boosted his campaign.


"Iowans understand hard work, fairness and integrity, the same values that Bruce Springsteen, the president and vice president stand for," Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said in a statement. "Springsteen's appearances will be valuable in energizing supporters and getting out the vote effort in these important swing states."


The Obama campaign did not have details about the size of the venues in Ames, Iowa and the Parma, Ohio, area. Former President Bill Clinton will be at the event with Springsteen in Ohio. Both events are free and open to the public.


The Obama campaign often plays Springsteen songs at campaign stops, believing his working-class themes fit in well with the president's message. The New Jersey-born rocker also campaigned for Obama in 2008.


Eastwood, the Oscar-winning director and actor, made a surprise and somewhat bizarre appearance at the Republican National Convention when he used an empty stool as a prop to represent the Democratic incumbent.


DEBATE PREP


Obama is spending the weekend at a resort in Williamsburg, Virginia, where he is preparing for the next debate on Tuesday with Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.


Senator John Kerry will reprise his role impersonating the Republican presidential candidate. Obama advisers David Axelrod, David Plouffe and others are working with the president to craft a sharper performance after his lackluster encounter with Romney at their first debate.


Virginia is a battleground state, and the president's choice of location for debate preparation not far from Washington was not an accident. As he did during his stay in Nevada before the first debate, Obama will likely make an unscheduled stop in the area to generate local press coverage during his stay.


Aides to the president have been reluctant to share details on how his debate preparation is structured.


A campaign official said he would spend the coming days practicing and studying material.


Vice President Joe Biden brought new vigor to the Obama campaign after his aggressive debate on Thursday against Romney's running mate, U.S. Representative Paul Ryan. But voters traditionally pay much closer attention to the candidates at the top of the ticket.


Obama is likely to follow up on issues from the vice presidential debate where his campaign believes Ryan showed signs of weakness, including taxes, women's right to abortion, and a time line for ending the war in Afghanistan.


(Editing by Peter Cooney)


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Brad Pitt blasts U.S. 'War on Drugs,' calls for policy rethink


LOS ANGELES | Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:30pm EDT


LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Brad Pitt has thrown his weight behind a documentary that blasts America's 40-year war on drugs as a failure, calling policies that imprison huge numbers of drug-users a "charade" in urgent need of a rethink.


The Hollywood actor came aboard recently as an executive producer of filmmaker Eugene Jarecki's "The House I Live In," which won the Grand Jury Prize in January at the Sundance Film Festival. The film opened in wide release in the United States on Friday.


Ahead of a Los Angeles screening, Pitt and Jarecki spoke passionately about the "War on Drugs" which, according to the documentary, has cost more than $1 trillion and accounted for over 45 million arrests since 1971, and which preys largely on poor and minority communities.


"I know people are suffering because of it. I know I've lived a very privileged life in comparison and I can't stand for it," Pitt told Reuters on Friday, calling the government's War on Drugs policy a "charade."


"It's such bad strategy. It makes no sense. It perpetuates itself. You make a bust, you drive up profit, which makes more people want to get into it," he added. "To me, there's no question; we have to rethink this policy and we have to rethink it now."


"The House I Live In" was filmed in more than 20 states and tells stories from many sides of the issue, including Jarecki's African-American nanny, a drug dealer, narcotics officer, inmate, judge, grieving mother, senator and others.


It also shows that although the United States accounts for only 5 percent of the world's population, it has 25 percent of its prison population. Additionally, African Americans, who make up roughly 13 percent of the population and 14 percent of its drug users, account for 56 percent of those incarcerated for drug crimes.


FILM GETS STRONG REVIEWS


The Los Angeles Times called the film "one of the most important pieces of nonfiction to hit the screen in years," while the Hollywood Reporter said it was a "potent cry for a drastic rethinking of America's War on Drugs" and that the film "should connect solidly with viewers at a moment when it seems possible to change public attitudes."


Pitt, who like his partner Angelina Jolie is no stranger to humanitarian and social causes, said that after seeing Jarecki's documentary, coupled with his own involvement with aiding the victims of Hurricane Katrina, he realized the U.S. government's war on drugs may not just be about drugs alone.


"That was an interesting premise for me," the "Moneyball" star told Reuters. "I hadn't thought about it in that matter (before seeing the film), but certainly what we witnessed after Katrina proved the idea had validity."


Some critics have attributed the slow response of the U.S. government to Katrina in 2005, and the devastating flooding of poor areas of New Orleans, to race and class issues.


Now, Pitt believes the War on Drugs is the greatest obstacle for impoverished parts of society, including African Americans, from getting ahead.


"It's a never-ending cycle. But then when you look at it after what we experienced with Katrina - this is Eugene's point and what he wanted to investigate - it is actually being used to cap a portion of our society and holding them back, shackling them," the actor said, adding that he signed on as executive producer to help promote the documentary.


Jarecki contrasted the justice system's attitude to bankers in the 2008 financial meltdown of Wall Street, who "got a slap on the hand," with its stance toward young drug-takers.


"A kid right now a block from here is going to have a cop find an ounce of something on his person and he's going spend 10 years in jail. These are all indicators of a society that has lost its way - and it has lost its way in the direction of injustice and unfairness," Jarecki told Reuters.


(Editing by Jill Serjeant and Eric Walsh)


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Israeli library wins battle over Kafka papers


JERUSALEM | Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:18am EDT


JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A collection of yet unseen Franz Kafka writings, stashed for four decades in a Tel Aviv apartment, will be made public and transferred to Israel's national library, according to an Israeli court ruling published on Sunday.


The papers had been held by Eva Hoffe and Ruth Wiesler, two sisters who argued in a more than four-year-long case that they legally inherited the documents from their mother, Esther Hoffe, secretary to Kafka's close friend and executor, Max Brod.


But the court ruled that Brod, had ordered in his will that the majority of the documents he had given to his secretary should go to a public archive.


Leading experts have said they did not expect material to emerge from any of Kafka's writings found in the apartment that would prompt major revisions of the works by the Jewish, German-language author who died in 1924.


But papers in the collection are believed to include manuscripts by Brod that could shed new light on Kafka's life and times in Prague.


"It is a victory for the people of Israel," the National Library's Judaica Collection curator, Aviad Stollman, told Reuters. "These materials have been locked up for more than 40 years and will finally be exposed and made accessible to all," Stollman said.


Kafka's "The Trial", "The Castle" and "Amerika" were published after his death, when Brod, who was also his biographer, ignored the Prague-born writer's dying wish to burn all unpublished work.


In 1939 Brod fled the Nazis, taking the last train out of Prague with a suitcase of Kafka papers under his arm. After Brod's death in Israel in 1968, the archive was passed to Esther Hoffe.


The secretary placed some of the writings in Tel Aviv and Zurich safe deposit boxes and the rest in her apartment in the Israeli city, fuelling a Kafkaesque mystery about their content.


Esther Hoffe died in 2007. Her gift to her daughters was challenged in court by the State of Israel, which said the writings should be in the public domain in the Jewish state.


Brod had already given much of Kafka's manuscripts to the writer's niece in 1956. They ended up in Oxford after a chance meeting between an English academic and the niece's son -- Kafka's great-nephew.


In Israel, Esther Hoffe frustrated scholars by denying them access to the papers in her possession -- though she sold Kafka's manuscript of his novel "The Trial" for a reported $2 million in the 1980s.


During the trial, the sides bickered about the dubious conditions in which some of the writings were supposedly kept, with the woman's cats cited as a concern.


Harel Ashwal, a lawyer who represented one of Hoffe's daughters, told Army Radio the legal team was likely to appeal.


"It is not the end of the story," he said.


(Writing by Maayan Lubell, editing by Diana Abdallah)


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China September consumer inflation eases to 1.9 percent

BEIJING | Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:37pm EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's annual consumer price inflation ticked down to 1.9 percent in September from August's 2.0 percent, official data showed on Monday, leaving plenty of room for further policy easing to shore up growth.

The headline consumer inflation number matched the forecast of economists polled by Reuters.

Analysts say consumer inflation running well below the 4 percent annual target set by the government leaves room for policymakers do more to support the economy, which Q3 data due on October 18 is likely to confirm has suffered a seventh successively slower quarter of annual growth.

"This is little surprise in the inflation data. It's mainly caused by the drop in food costs," said Zhou Hao, an economist at ANZ Bank in Shanghai. "On monetary policy, we can only say that there is a little more room for further policy easing. Exports have showed signs of stabilisation, but the economy still needs some policy loosening."

The National Bureau of Statistics said China's producer price index in September dropped 3.6 percent from a year earlier, which was also in line with forecasts.

It marked the seventh straight month of producer price deflation, hurting corporate profits and underpinning expectations that consumer inflation will stay tame in the coming months.

The central bank is widely expected to ease policy further, having cut interest rates twice since June and trimmed banks' required reserves three times since November.

Easing consumer prices and outright falls in factory gate prices are signs that the world's second-biggest economy is struggling to escape the tug of a global slowdown that has set China on course for its weakest full year of growth since 1999.

Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said in a speech at last week's annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund that he expected inflation to be about 2.7 percent for the full year, with growth around 7.8 percent.

But he said signs of resurgence in property prices, which the government has fought for more than two years to rein in, posed a dilemma for policymakers.

Real estate directly affects about 40 different business sectors in China and the government-induced slowdown is widely regarded by analysts as putting an extra brake on the economy.

(Reporting by Lucy Hornby; Editing by Alex Richardson)


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AirAsia scraps $80 million deal to buy Indonesia's Batavia Air

An Air Asia Airbus A320-200 aircraft approaches its parking space at the Low Cost Carrier Terminal (LCCT) in Sepang, outside Kuala Lumpur March 21, 2012. REUTERS/Tim Chong

An Air Asia Airbus A320-200 aircraft approaches its parking space at the Low Cost Carrier Terminal (LCCT) in Sepang, outside Kuala Lumpur March 21, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Tim Chong

KUALA LUMPUR | Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:29pm EDT

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - AirAsia (AIRA.KL), Asia's largest budget carrier, has scrapped a $80 million deal to buy Indonesia's Batavia Air because the move would have carried too many risks, AirAsia Group CEO Tony Fernandes said.

Malaysia-listed AirAsia had announced plans in July to acquire Batavia in a bid to expand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy. It would have been AirAsia's first major airline acquisition and would have ratcheted up competition in Indonesia among low-cost carriers such as Lion Air and flag carrier Garuda's (GIAA.JK) Citilink unit.

"Our aggressive focus in Indonesia remains and we will push our Indonesian IPO plans while still maintaining close co-operation with Batavia Air," Fernandes said in a statement on Monday.

"The company's decision was based on a thorough evaluation by many parties into Batavia Air. In our minds, the timing was perhaps not appropriate as it would have induced too many risks and would ultimately be earnings dilutive to our shareholders."

Fernandes in the past has expressed caution towards acquisitions, calling them "value-destroying" in an interview with Reuters last year.

AirAsia will now collaborate with Batavia Air on other aspects of the aviation business, including a training joint venture to address an expected skilled pilot shortage in Indonesia, the statement said.

AirAsia shares were down 0.3 percent in early trade.

(Reporting by Niluksi Koswanage; Editing by Chris Gallagher)


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New Zealand reaffirms state power company sale Q2 next year: PM

WELLINGTON | Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:20pm EDT

WELLINGTON (Reuters) - New Zealand will go ahead with its first partial sale of a state power company early next year after rejecting the idea of special concessions for indigenous people, the prime minister said on Monday, raising the prospect of a legal fight.

Maori groups have threatened legal action over the decision, which could stall a three to five-year program worth up to NZ$7 billion ($5.6 billion) to sell minority stakes in three power companies, a coal miner, and the national airline, to help to cut debt and return the budget to surplus by 2015.

Prime Minister John Key said his center-right government would proceed with the sale of a minority stake in Mighty River Power MRIPW.UL between March and June next year, regardless of the threat of legal action.

"That's entirely a matter for them. From the government's perspective, it would not be unexpected," he said in a statement.

The government is aiming to sell a stake in a second power company, either Genesis Energy or Meridian Energy, by the end of next year. The two sales could be worth more than NZ$3 billion.

The government put the planned Mighty River stake sale on hold last month to consult with indigenous Maori tribes on options to recognize their interests in water resources.

Key said the government had rejected a suggestion from an advisory tribunal that Maori should get special rights over the management of water resources and should be given rights ahead of other shareholders in state power companies using water for generation.

It held the view that no one group owns water, and that Maori rights in particular regions could be satisfied through other measures.

In order to sweeten public opinion about the controversial sales, the government has said it will ensure New Zealanders get a preference in share sales, limit the size of individual holdings, and offer bonus shares to locals who hold shares for at least three years.

($1 = 1.23 New Zealand dollars)

(Reporting by Gyles Beckford; Editing by Richard Pullin)


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Realogy IPO lit up market but is it overly leveraged? - Barrons

n">(Reuters) - Realogy's IPO last week was one of the biggest smashes of the year. Only Facebook Inc and Santander Mexico Financial Group were bigger.

The IPO, with shares soaring 22 percent during the company's market debut, was a bet on the housing rebound as well as a victory for private equity firm Apollo Global Management LLC, which took Realogy private at the peak of the housing boom in 2007.

But shares in the Parsippany, New Jersey-based company, which owns real estate brokerages such as Coldwell Banker and Century 21, "look overpriced," according to a story on Sunday in Barron's.

As noted in Barron's, the company is valued at $4.4 billion and carries $4.5 billion in debt.

"Put a still-generous multiple of 11 on next year's projected cash flow and Realogy's stock is valued at around $27," said Barrons. "That's 20 percent below current levels."

(Reporting By Michelle Conlin; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)


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Lonely, hard work on oil rigs, but salaries soaring

Johnathan Roberts, operations manager of S.D. Standard Drilling Plc., poses for photo on an oil drilling rig being built at the Keppel FELS shipyard in Singapore October 12, 2012. REUTERS/Tim Chong

1 of 2. Johnathan Roberts, operations manager of S.D. Standard Drilling Plc., poses for photo on an oil drilling rig being built at the Keppel FELS shipyard in Singapore October 12, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Tim Chong



SINGAPORE | Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:34pm EDT


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - What jobs offer the highest pay? Investment banking is up there. So is specialist surgery.


But consider this. Slightly over twenty years ago, Johnathan Roberts started work on an oil rig at $5 an hour. Today, the newly appointed operations manager of Norway's Standard Drilling makes about half a million dollars a year.


Even accounting for inflation, it's a huge jump for the 45-year-old American. Salaries on oil rigs have soared because of a global boom in offshore drilling.


Managers and workers are scarce in this specialised industry, where the work is intense and the job involves living on a platform in remote seas for weeks. For new players in Asia, where the energy demands of booming economies are driving a foray into offshore drilling, the costs and availability of skilled workers will be a big restraining factor.


"The amount of money they are making an hour is just mind-boggling now, just five years ago they were making just half that," said Roberts, who moved to Singapore this year from Texas. He said his pay more than doubled in 1999 when the industry faced a labour shortage like the one that appears to be emerging.


The increasing demand for oil and gas is pushing energy companies to explore frontier areas like the Arctic and new offshore zones given that output from accessible fields is declining. Global oil demand has risen 14 percent in total to 88 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2011 from 2001, according to the BP annual statistical review. Rapidly growing economies have accounted for much of the increase -- consumption in China doubled in the same period to 9.76 million bpd.


Energy and mining offer good salaries, said Wyn James, a Singapore-based Briton who left a career in banking this year to open Zhen Global, a firm that recruits and places workers in mining and oil extraction.


"What we are seeing now is an acute shortage of people actually with applied skills, from engineering or chemical backgrounds," James said.


"Even if the skills do exist globally, they don't necessarily exist in the place that is needed. So what we are doing is we are picking up people from all corners of the world and we are sticking them into projects, whether it's short-term or medium-term, but where they can earn reasonable money, live in a different country, live offshore, whatever that may be."


GLOBAL TREND


Deepwater drilling, one of the most difficult but most lucrative parts of the extraction business, has mainly been centred in the Gulf of Mexico. But in the past decade, Brazil has become a key player, exploring untapped reserves in the Santos basin as far away as 300 km (188 miles) southeast of Sao Paulo, and at depths of over 1,500 metres. That drive is sucking in hundreds of rig operators, drillers, engineers and other technicians.


On the other side of the world, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) aims to build capacity to produce one million barrels per day of oil equivalent in deep waters offshore China by 2020.


India, Asia's third-biggest oil consumer, is also expanding into the deep waters of the Bay of Bengal.


There were 540 offshore oil rigs in the world last year and, by the end of 2012, the number should rise by 51 to 591, says Faststream Recruitment, a U.K.-based firm that specializes in hiring for the shipping, oil and gas industry.


It is the biggest jump for any year in the past decade, said Mark Robertshaw, managing director of Faststream. In 2013, the number will grow by 28 to 619.


The increase would mean more than 11,000 new jobs over the next 12 to 18 months from a total of 117,000, based on an average need of about 184 jobs on one rig, he said.


"If you consider that over the past 10 years, the annual number of rigs under contract has grown to average 539 during 2011, it becomes apparent that offshore employment for workers actually housed on floaters and jackups will spike significantly," Robertshaw said.


ROUSTABOUTS AND ROUGHNECKS


The labour crunch has already seen pay for a roustabout, the least skilled worker on a rig, nearly double in the past five years to $18-$20 an hour. A roughneck, a rank higher, earns about $27-$28, said Roberts, the U.S. rig manager.


"When the rousta gets a raise it doesn't just stop there," he said. "It goes all the way to the top."


A rig operates on 12-hour shifts and typically workers do 14 days and then rotate out for a break for another 14 days.


The schedule puts off many and with salaries in IT and other industries growing, an engineering graduate or technician has other options.


"Skilled labour is becoming difficult to find," said Scott Kerr, chief executive of Norwegian deepwater drilling company Sevan Drilling.


The salary increases show up on balance sheets. For Keppel Corp., the world's largest rig builder, wages and salaries surged 27 percent to $1.43 billion by 2011 from 2007, while the number of employees increased 5.7 percent over the same period, according to its annual reports. Nearly 90 percent of staff work in the oil rig division.


Besides pay, companies try to attract talent with career opportunities.


"An engineer does not need to stay an engineer all his life. I was trained as a naval architect and I practised for a few years, but beyond that I was in management," said Choo Chiau Beng, chief executive of Keppel Corp.


"In some respects, being a highly paid CEO has attracted people to Keppel, because it shows you don't need to be a lawyer to be highly paid, you can be an engineer and be highly paid."


For rig men like Roberts, the money is not to be sneezed at.


"After clearing taxes, my first check after one week was $167," he said. "My first apartment was very small, it was a little bitty one bedroom studio."


Today, Roberts owns a home in a community in Texas that has manicured lawns, landscaped gardens and four golf courses. He is saving to buy a $2 million ranch.


"I didn't come up with a silver spoon in my mouth, I came up working through the ranks," he said.


(Additional reporting by Charlie Zhu in Hong Kong; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)


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Hedge funds pile into gold, gas for second week


NEW YORK | Sun Oct 14, 2012 4:02pm EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hedge funds and other big speculators piled into the rallying gold and natural gas markets for a second week running, taking the net long money in U.S. commodities up by nearly $1 billion, trade data showed on Friday.


The so-called "money managers" in commodities boosted their net longs in gold to the highest level in nearly 16 months, while taking bullish bets in gas to 8-week peaks, according to the data issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.(CFTC)


Reuters' calculations of the CFTC's Commitment of Traders data showed the value of the net long position held by money managers in some 22 U.S. commodity markets tracked by the CFTC rose by around $900 million in the week to October 9, touching nearly $114 billion.


The figures are calculated by Reuters based on the change in net positions from the week before, multiplied by the contract's value at the end of the period. Because most investors trade commodities on margin, the change in the value of positions is not directly equivalent to total investment.


Managed money's net length in gold futures and options traded on New York's COMEX rose by 2,547 lots to 198,194 lots in the week ended October 9 -- the largest such holding since August 2011.


Gold posted four straight months of gains prior to October. Last week, it hit 11-month highs just below $1,800 an ounce.


While the precious metal saw some profit-taking this week -- closing on Friday with the sharpest weekly decline since June -- some analysts expect a rebound due to euro zone debt worries and economic uncertainties.


Prospects of a U.S. "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases scheduled for January could also shock the U.S. economy and lead to more money printing from the Federal Reserve, analysts said.


In natural gas, money managers added 13,119 contracts in NYMEX natural gas futures and options, NYMEX Henry Hub Swaps, NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate Swaps, and ICE Henry Hub Swaps, for a net long position of 151,942. It was the largest net long position in eight weeks for speculators in gas.


The front-month contract for NYMEX natural gas hit a 2012 peak of $3.638 per million British thermal units (mmmBtu) in Friday's session. Gas prices have gained nearly 30 percent since the end of August, helped by light stockpile builds amid cooler weather forecasts in the U.S. Northeast.


(Editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)


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Analysis: Collusion lawsuit in U.S. against buyout firms is no easy case

By Michael Erman and Tom Hals

Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:45pm EDT

n">(Reuters) - Shareholder lawyers may have embarrassed just about every top executive in the U.S. private equity industry with allegations of a wide conspiracy to rig deal prices during last decade's buyout boom, but proving their case will be a different matter.

Legal experts say much of the alleged collusion outlined in the antitrust lawsuit may have been nothing more than firms working together in perfectly acceptable ways to spread the risk of taking on a big investment. The practice, they say, allowed the investment firms to pursue the largest deals and offer premiums to shareholders.

A lack of action by the U.S. Department of Justice in a parallel antitrust investigation could also suggest there are few grounds to go after the industry. That probe dates to 2006, according to the lawsuit and regulatory filings from some private equity firms.

"If these allegations are true, and if the DOJ has been investigating since 2006, one wonders then why didn't the DOJ do anything?" said Maurice Stucke, a former Justice Department antitrust prosecutor who is now a professor at the University of Tennessee College of Law.

The Justice Department declined to comment.

The Boston federal judge overseeing the case released a mostly unredacted version of the complaint this week. The defendants had objected, arguing that competitive information about deals should remain blacked out from public view.

One exchange appears particularly revealing. According to the lawsuit, Blackstone Group LP President Tony James wrote in an email to KKR & Co co-founder George Roberts: "We would much rather work with you guys than against you. Together we can be unstoppable but in opposition we can cost each other a lot of money."

Roberts, the lawsuit said, replied later that day: "Agreed."

The emails were allegedly sent after KKR decided to step down in the $17.6 billion bidding for semiconductor company Freescale in 2006. A group led by Blackstone eventually won.

Blackstone, KKR and Roberts declined to comment. James did not return a call for comment.

Many lawsuits contain snippets of emails or other conversations involving defendants, and legal experts note that such excerpts may not tell the whole story.

In one instance, the plaintiffs accuse KKR of having "bragged" to its investors in 2005 that "Gone are the days when buy-out firms fought each other with the ferocity of cornered cats to win a deal."

But those words were not KKR's. The firm cited this sentence, which originally appeared in a March 31, 2005, article in The Economist magazine, in a presentation to investors discussing the trend of so-called club deals in which buyout firms pursue acquisitions together, according to KKR spokeswoman Kristi Huller. She said the quote was a bullet point in the presentation and was clearly cited as being from the magazine.

Chris Burke, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, said it was not misleading to include the KKR presentation in the lawsuit without more explanation.

"Was it lifted out of context? No," said Burke, of law firm Scott + Scott. "Was it out of an Economist article? Sure."

PRICE-RIGGING ALLEGATIONS

In the lawsuit, the plaintiffs contend that KKR, Blackstone, Bain Capital Partners LLC, the Carlyle Group and others conspired to suppress prices of takeover targets, hurting shareholders in many companies purchased in the deal boom between 2003 and 2007.

Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate and a Bain founder, left that firm in 1999, before the transactions in question. He is not named in the complaint.

In one email cited prominently in the opening pages of the complaint, Silver Lake Partners co-founder Glenn Hutchins seemingly anticipated that his fund would participate in rivals' future deals after bringing a half dozen others into the 2005 buyout of SunGard Data Systems.

"We invited you into Sun(G)ard and have a reasonable expectation of your reciprocating," Hutchins wrote to Blackstone's James, according to the complaint.

Silver Lake and Hutchins declined to comment.

Legal experts say email exchanges among top executives at rival firms do not necessarily mean collusion. While firms competed on smaller deals, they were increasingly working together to spread the risk of larger buyouts and needed to talk to one another, experts said.

The evidence in the emails "is pretty thin gruel," said Hays Gorey, a partner with the GeyerGorey law firm and a former Justice Department antitrust prosecutor.

"Without proof that each conspirator 'got something,' it's simply not believable that they were joint actors," said Gorey, who is not involved in the lawsuit.

The case, filed in 2007, seeks class-action status. Suits by several pension funds and individual shareholders were combined, and after being allowed to move forward, the plaintiffs updated the complaint with the fruits of their investigations into 11 private equity firms.

Burke, the plaintiffs' attorney, said substantial evidence of collusion has been uncovered and noted that the judge allowed him to expand his investigation to 27 deals, up from nine initially.

In every deal, he said, no rival ever offered a counter bid once a target company's board accepted a written offer from a buyout firm.

"It's a complete absence of competition. That's thin gruel?"

A trial could be at least a year away. Assuming the case survives summary judgment, a move by defendants to get a case thrown out before trial, Burke said the next hurdle likely would be a fight to formally recognize the case as a class action.

The buyout firms potentially could be on the hook to compensate the selling shareholders for what they should have received in a competitive auction.

In some antitrust cases, plaintiffs can receive three times the damages they suffered. The plaintiffs claim that the 2006 buyout of hospital chain HCA alone was depressed by $1 billion due to the alleged collusion.

It may be harder to make similar claims on other deals, such as the $45 billion takeover of power company TXU. In that deal, a consortium of KKR, TPG Capital, Goldman Sachs Group Inc's private equity arm and others teamed up, agreeing to pay a premium of more than 20 percent for the company.

"Many of these deals could not have been done by one firm individually, you need to pool the firms together," said University of Chicago Professor of Finance Steven Kaplan.

KKR has taken significant writedowns on the TXU acquisition, the largest buyout in history. Even if the plaintiffs prove collusion on the deal, they may not be able to prove damages, said Robert Miller, a law professor at the University of Iowa.

(Reporting By Tom Hals in Wilmington, Delaware, and Mike Erman in New York; Additional reporting by Nate Raymond in New York; Editing by Martha Graybow and Eric Beech)


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Hedge funds pile into gold, gas for second week

NEW YORK | Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:47pm EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hedge funds and other big speculators piled into the rallying gold and natural gas markets for a second week running, taking the net long money in U.S. commodities up by nearly $1 billion, trade data showed on Friday.


The so-called "money managers" in commodities boosted their net longs in gold to the highest level in nearly 16 months, while taking bullish bets in gas to 8-week peaks, according to the data issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.(CFTC)


Reuters' calculations of the CFTC's Commitment of Traders data showed the value of the net long position held by money managers in some 22 U.S. commodity markets tracked by the CFTC rose by around $900 million in the week to October 9, touching nearly $114 billion.


The figures are calculated by Reuters based on the change in net positions from the week before, multiplied by the contract's value at the end of the period. Because most investors trade commodities on margin, the change in the value of positions is not directly equivalent to total investment.


Managed money's net length in gold futures and options traded on New York's COMEX rose by 2,547 lots to 198,194 lots in the week ended October 9 -- the largest such holding since August 2011.


Gold posted four straight months of gains prior to October. Last week, it hit 11-month highs just below $1,800 an ounce.


While the precious metal saw some profit-taking this week -- closing on Friday with the sharpest weekly decline since June -- some analysts expect a rebound due to euro zone debt worries and economic uncertainties.


Prospects of a U.S. "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases scheduled for January could also shock the U.S. economy and lead to more money printing from the Federal Reserve, analysts said.


In natural gas, money managers added 13,119 contracts in NYMEX natural gas futures and options, NYMEX Henry Hub Swaps, NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate Swaps, and ICE Henry Hub Swaps, for a net long position of 151,942. It was the largest net long position in eight weeks for speculators in gas.


The front-month contract for NYMEX natural gas hit a 2012 peak of $3.638 per million British thermal units (mmmBtu) in Friday's session. Gas prices have gained nearly 30 percent since the end of August, helped by light stockpile builds amid cooler weather forecasts in the U.S. Northeast.


(Editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)


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Exclusive: FTC moving closer to Google antitrust case - sources

The Google logo is seen as Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt speaks at a promotional event for the Nexus 7 tablet in Seoul September 27, 2012. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

The Google logo is seen as Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt speaks at a promotional event for the Nexus 7 tablet in Seoul September 27, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kim Hong-Ji



WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:32pm EDT


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The majority of top decision-makers at the Federal Trade Commission believe that an antitrust case should be brought against Google Inc, meaning the search giant could soon be headed into tough negotiations, three people familiar with the matter said.


Four of the FTC commissioners have become convinced after more than a year of investigation that Google illegally used its dominance of the search market to hurt its rivals, while one commissioner is skeptical, the sources said.


All three declined to be named to protect working relationships.


Two of the sources said a decision on how to proceed could come in late November or early December.


A long list of companies has been complaining to the FTC, arguing that the agency should crack down on Google.


Companies rarely talk publicly about their dealings with the FTC, but consumer reviews website Yelp and comparison shopping website Nextag have both complained about Google during open hearings in Congress.


Google rivals specializing in travel, shopping and entertainment have accused Google, the world's No. 1 search engine, of unfairly giving their web sites low quality rankings in search results to steer Internet users away from their websites and toward Google products that provide similar services.


Computer users are overwhelmingly more likely to click on the top results in any search. The low ranking often forces companies to buy more ads on Google to improve their visibility, one source said.


Google has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.


Asked about any discussions with the FTC, Google spokeswoman Niki Fenwick said: "We are happy to answer any questions that regulators have about our business." The FTC declined to comment.


During a congressional hearing in September 2011, Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt denied that the company manipulated its search results. "May I simply say that I can assure you we've not cooked anything," he told the Senate Judiciary Committee's antitrust panel.


COMPLAINTS PILE UP


The one source said the FTC commissioners have given weight to other complaints that Google refuses to share data that would allow advertisers and developers to create software to compare the value they get on Google to advertising spending on Microsoft's Bing or Yahoo.


In a related issue, the FTC is looking at Google's handling of valuable patents, which are determined to be essential to smartphones. The agency is trying to determine if they are licensed fairly and whether patent infringement lawsuits are used to hamper innovation.


FTC Chairman Jon Leibowitz said in mid-September that he expected a decision in the case by the end of the year. European regulators are conducting a similar antitrust probe.


If the agency finds that Google broke the law, the FTC and Google could hammer out a settlement that resolves the issues or, if settlement negotiations fail, the matter could end up in a lengthy, expensive court fight.


The FTC announced in April that it had hired high-powered Washington lawyer Beth Wilkinson to lead the probe. The hiring was seen as a sign that the FTC was contemplating filing a lawsuit against Google.


This is not the first run-in that Google has had with the agency.


In August, Google was forced to pay $22.5 million to settle charges it bypassed the privacy settings of customers using Apple Inc's Safari browser. The practice was in violation of a 2011 consent decree with the FTC over a botched rollout of the now defunct social network Buzz.


(Reporting By Diane Bartz; Editing by Karey Wutkowski and Tim Dobbyn)


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Wall Street posts worst week since June, banks weigh

Trader Fred Demarco works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, October 12, 2012. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

1 of 4. Trader Fred Demarco works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, October 12, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Brendan McDermid



NEW YORK | Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:12pm EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks wrapped up their worst week in four months, led lower on Friday by financial shares as results from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan ignited concerns about shrinking profit margins for big lenders.


Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC.N) fell 2.6 percent to $34.25 and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) lost 1.1 percent to $41.62 as concerns grew over their lower net interest margin - the difference between what a bank pays on deposits and what it makes on loans - which could narrow further as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates near zero.


The lackluster market reaction came even though both Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, the two largest U.S. financial stocks by market value, reported record profits.


"Bank shares as a group have had a nice move (up) this year so far," said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities in New York. "Guidance is cautious so people are taking money off the table."


The results sparked a selloff in other bank shares. An S&P financial index .GSPF, down 1.4 percent, represented the worst performer of the S&P 500's top 10 sectors. The KBW Bank index .BKX lost 2.5 percent.


Polcari said the low volume that came with this week's decline indicated this was not a sign of panic. Since hitting a near five-year intraday high of 1,474.51 on September 14, the benchmark S&P 500 Index has fallen 3.1 percent.


"If we keep getting negative reports, selling will pick up," he said.


Expectations are low for S&P 500 companies' results. Quarterly earnings are forecast to fall 3 percent from a year ago, compared with a 2.1 percent drop estimated at the start of the month, according to Thomson Reuters data.


The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI edged up 2.46 points, or 0.02 percent, to 13,328.85 at the close. But the S&P 500 .SPX fell 4.25 points, or 0.30 percent, to finish at 1,428.59. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dipped 5.30 points, or 0.17 percent, to 3,044.11.


The S&P 500 closed right above its 50-day moving average, barely enough to avoid going into the weekend with a technical red flag hanging over the market.


Despite several encouraging data points this week, the benchmark S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent - its worst weekly performance since the week ended June 1.


Shares of Workday Inc (WDAY.N), a cloud computing company that has yet to turn a profit, soared nearly 74 percent to $48.69 in their market debut, driving some tech analysts to question the lofty valuation.


Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.N) fell 14.4 percent to $2.74 a day after the chipmaker said its third-quarter revenue probably fell 10 percent from the previous quarter as a weak global economy and a growing preference for tablets slams the PC industry.


About 5.5 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.52 billion shares.


On the NYSE, about seven issues fell for every four that rose. On the Nasdaq, almost two issues fell for every one that advanced.


Earlier in the session, the market was supported by Thomson Reuters-University of Michigan data showing U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to its highest in five years in October, in the latest in a string of encouraging signs about the economy.


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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Seniors face a tiny Social Security raise next year

An elderly man walks with his cane amid shoppers at the Glendale Galleria shopping mall on Black Friday in Glendale, California November 28, 2008. REUTERS/Fred Prouser

An elderly man walks with his cane amid shoppers at the Glendale Galleria shopping mall on Black Friday in Glendale, California November 28, 2008.

Credit: Reuters/Fred Prouser



CHICAGO | Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:18am EDT


CHICAGO (Reuters) - Last October seniors got some really good news about their Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. This October? Not so much.


This year seniors have benefited from the robust 3.6 percent 2012 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Adding to the good news, they learned Medicare premiums wouldn't take much of a nick out of their inflation raise.


Next year, the Social Security COLA for 2013 is expected to be 1.4 percent - and for many seniors, much of that will be eaten up by a higher Medicare Part B premium.


We won't get the final word on the 2013 Social Security COLA until October 16, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases inflation numbers for September. But it's not looking good for retirees on a fixed income.


To reach the yearly COLA adjustment the Social Security Administration averages together third-quarter inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). July and August reports are pointing toward a COLA of just 1.4 percent.


However, many seniors won't even get that much because of the interplay of the COLA and premiums for Medicare Part B, which covers outpatient services. These two go hand in hand since the premium is deducted from most seniors' benefits.


Last year the Part B premium rose by a modest $3.50 per month, which meant seniors kept most of that large 3.6 percent COLA. For example, a senior receiving the average monthly Social Security benefit ($1,177) received a net 3.3 percent increase.


Experts expect the Part B premium to rise from 5 percent to 10 percent in 2013; the Medicare trustees said earlier this year that a 9.2 percent increase was most likely. That translates to a $9.20 monthly increase over this year's $99.90 premium. That means some seniors will see no net increase at all, while many others will get far less than 1.4 percent.


"It certainly isn't going to be enough to face the higher heating bills and all the other higher expenses seniors will face next year," says Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst for the Senior Citizens League (SCL), a nonpartisan consumer advocacy group.


The likely paltry COLA will also add to the debate over what measure of inflation is most appropriate for determining Social Security's annual benefit adjustments.


WHO PAYS THE FREIGHT


Here's how it works. By law, most Medicare enrollees can't be charged a Part B premium that produces a net reduction in Social Security benefits. Assuming the Social Security and Medicare percentages come in as forecast, this "hold harmless" feature would protect seniors with Social Security benefits of $625 or lower, according to SCL.


Seniors with higher benefits would see a small inflation raise. A senior with a $1,000 monthly benefit would see a 0.48 percent net increase after the Part B adjustment; for a $1,500 monthly benefit, the net COLA would be 0.79 percent.


The hold-harmless provision doesn't protect three groups of beneficiaries: high-income seniors, new enrollees in Medicare this year (whose benefits can't decline from one year to the next), and low-income seniors who are eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. (This last group doesn't pay the premium out of pocket anyway; state Medicaid programs pick up the costs.)


High-income beneficiaries include individuals with annual income starting at $85,000 (single filers) or $170,000 (joint filers), and move up from there.


This group pays full freight on the Part B premium, plus an income-based surcharge. And the surcharges aren't limited to Part B: Extra premiums also are charged for prescription drug plans (Part D) and Medicare Advantage plans (Part C).


THE UNCOLA


This year's small COLA will figure in Washington's discussion of selecting the best inflation measure for determining Social Security's annual benefit adjustments.


Many advocates for seniors argue that the CPI-W understates the inflation that affects seniors - mainly their healthcare expenses. They've been pushing for adoption of a more realistic measure that better reflects seniors' costs - an experimental index maintained by the BLS called the CPI-E (for elderly).


Meanwhile, the key federal deficit reduction plans that have been advanced in Washington advocates moving in the opposite direction. These plans have recommended adopting a measure of inflation called the "chained CPI." That index would rise more slowly than the current measure (the CPI-W).


That debate is apt to continue for some time. Meanwhile, next year's COLA looks like an "October surprise" for seniors on Social Security.


(The writer is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)


(Editing by Chelsea Emery and Prudence Crowther)


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