WASHINGTON | Wed Dec 26, 2012 5:43pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Treasury on Wednesday announced the first of a series of measures that should push back the day when the government will exceed its legal borrowing authority as imposed by Congress by around two months.

Without any action, Treasury said the government is set to reach its $16.4 trillion debt ceiling on December 31.

The government is facing a crunch on the debt ceiling because the issue has become ensnarled in talks to avoid some $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to begin in early January. Failing to raise the debt ceiling could cause the government to default on its debt.

To cut government spending and delay bumping up against the debt ceiling, the Treasury will suspend issuance of state and local government series securities -- known as "slugs" -- beginning on December 28.

Investments in a government employee pension fund will also be suspended, along with some other measures, although Treasury did not give dates for when these other measures will begin.

"These extraordinary measures ... can create approximately $200 billion in headroom under the debt limit," Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote in a letter to congressional leaders.

Normally, these measures would buy the Treasury about two months time before hitting the debt ceiling, Geithner said in the letter. But a series of planned tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in early January could give Treasury further time if they take effect as scheduled, he said.

"Treasury will provide more guidance regarding the expected duration of these measures when the policy outlook becomes clearer," he said.

The instruments known as slugs are special low-interest Treasury securities offered to state and local governments to temporarily invest proceeds from municipal bond sales. They have been suspended several times over the last 20 years to avoid hitting the debt ceiling.

Many analysts believe the measures available to the Treasury can stave that date off into late February.

The U.S. Congress typically authorizes government borrowing in a two-stage process, first drafting plans to spend more than it raises in tax revenues. Every few years, it raises a limit on government borrowing to accommodate annual deficits, a process that this year has become ensnared by the contentious budget talks in Washington.

(Reporting by Anna Yukhananov and Jason Lange; additional reporting by Pedro Da Costa; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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Wed Dec 26, 2012 2:51pm EST

n">(Reuters) - Falling off the "fiscal cliff" is a bad thing, right?

Not necessarily for some state governments that could begin collecting more in estate taxes on wealth left to heirs if the United States goes over the "cliff," allowing sharp tax increases and federal spending cuts to take effect in January.

In an example of federal and state tax law interaction that gets little notice on Capitol Hill, 30 states next year could collect $3 billion more in estate taxes if Congress and President Barack Obama do not act soon, estimated the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank.

The reason? The federal estate tax would return with a vengeance and so would a federal credit system that shares a portion of it with the 30 states. They had been getting their cut of this tax revenue stream until the early 2000s. That was when the credit system for payment of state estate tax went away due to tax cuts enacted under former President George W. Bush.

With the return of the credit system next year as part of the "cliff," states such as Florida, Colorado and Texas - which have not collected estate tax since 2004 - could resume doing so. California Governor Jerry Brown has already begun to add the anticipated estate tax revenue into his plans, including $45 million of it in his 2012-2013 revised budget.

Brown may or may not be jumping the gun.

CLOUDY CLIFF AHEAD

The outlook on the "fiscal cliff" coming up at year-end is uncertain. Democratic President Barack Obama has said he hopes for a last-minute deal to avert it. That would need to get done soon, with Congress just now coming back from its holiday break.

Chances of an agreement became more remote last week after Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives fumbled their own legislative attempt to prevent the fiscal jolt that economists say could trigger a recession.

House Speaker John Boehner abruptly adjourned the chamber for the holidays after failing to gather the votes from within his own party to pass legislation he and other Republicans had drafted, after walking out of negotiations with Obama.

Weeks of inconclusive political drama over the "cliff" have focused largely on individual income tax rates and spending on federal programs such Medicare and Social Security, but many tax issues are also involved, including the estate tax.

At the moment, under laws signed a decade ago by Bush, the estate tax is applied to inherited assets at a rate of 35 percent after a $5 million exemption. That means a deceased person can pass on an inheritance of up to $5 million before any tax applies. Inherited wealth passed to a spouse or a federally recognized charity is generally not taxed.

Obama wants to raise the rate to 45 percent after a $3.5 million exemption. Republicans have called for complete repeal of the estate tax, which they call the "death tax," though Boehner earlier this month called for freezing the estate tax at its present level. It was difficult to determine what the Republicans want after last week's events in the House.

STATES STAND TO GAIN

If Congress and Obama do not act by December 31, numerous Bush-era tax laws will expire, including the one on estate taxes. That would mean the estate tax rate will shoot up next year to the pre-Bush levels of 55 percent after a $1 million exemption.

It would also mean that for the first time in years, a portion of that estate tax would go to the states, through the return of the credit system.

Under that old law, estates paying the tax could get a credit against their federal tax bill for state estate tax payments of up to 16 percent of the estate's value.

If the fiscal cliff were allowed to take hold unaltered by Washington, 30 states would again automatically begin getting their share of federal estate taxes. The state laws are generally written so the state estate tax amounts are calculated under a formula based on the amount of the federal credit.

This would help states that have struggled with lower tax revenues since the 2007-2009 financial crisis and resulting recession, according to research by the Pew Center on the States, though painful federal spending cut backs would also hurt the states.

(Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Cynthia Osterman)

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Wed Dec 26, 2012 5:08pm EST

n">(Reuters) - The 2012 holiday season may have been the worst for retailers since the 2008 financial crisis, with sales growth far below expectations, forcing many to offer massive post-Christmas discounts in hopes of shedding excess inventory.

While chains like Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Gap Inc are thought to have done well, analysts expect much less from the likes of book seller Barnes & Noble Inc and department store chain J. C. Penney Co Inc.

Shares of retailers dropped sharply on Wednesday, helping drag broader indexes lower, as investors realized they were likely to be disappointed when companies start to report results in a few weeks' time.

"The broad brush was Christmas wasn't all that merry for retailers, and you have to ask what those margins look like if the top line didn't meet their expectations," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

Growth was always expected to slow this season, though an improving employment picture and rising home values had helped mitigate the worst fears. But then Superstorm Sandy hit the East Coast in late October, mild weather blunted sales of winter clothing and rising concern about the "fiscal cliff" became more of a reality, dragging down already-pessimistic forecasts.

The latest sign of trouble came from MasterCard Advisors Spending Pulse, which reported holiday-related sales rose 0.7 percent from October 28 through December 24, compared with a 2 percent increase last year.

The preliminary estimate from SpendingPulse was in line with other estimates showing weak growth during the holiday season, when retailers can book about 30 percent of annual sales - and in many cases, half of their profit.

"It has been a very uneven industry performance, probably at least for the last year, and that certainly continued into the holiday season," said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, in an interview with Reuters Insider.

The latest holiday season could end up the weakest since 2008, during the last recession, when sales actually declined. The National Retail Federation had previously predicted 4.1 percent sales growth this year, versus a 5.6 percent increase a year earlier.

Markets reacted sharply to the gloomy outlook.

The S&P retail index closed down 1.7 percent, and 14 of the top 20 decliners in the broader S&P 500 were retailers or consumer brands.

INVENTORY CRUSH

To be sure, the actual percentage change in holiday sales can differ substantially, depending on which group is calculating the figure. SpendingPulse and the National Retail Federation, for example, look at different categories, which can cause some variation in their forecasts.

Regardless of how bad the figure is, one concern for retailers is that soft sales will mean an excess of inventory that will force some to slash prices.

The day after Christmas, retailers were using deep discounts to lure shoppers. Among other brands, Barnes & Noble offered 50 percent discounts in stores via email promotions on Wednesday, while Ann Inc had half-off at its Loft stores, and Macy's Inc's Bloomingdale's promoted discounts of up to 75 percent in some cases.

At a Target store in New York City's Harlem neighborhood, most shoppers seemed to be spending more on groceries, toys and small gifts than on gadgets or clothes.

Despite discounts of 50 percent, there were few takers for Jason Wu glass ornaments, Oscar de la Renta canvas totes and other designer goods launched under the mass merchant's tie-up with upscale chain Neiman Marcus.

Even in a good year, retailers would have offered discounts to lure customers, but some suggest a weak year has now forced their hands.

"Retailers are no longer chasing sales, they are chasing inventory management. That means the discounts that they would have liked to be at 50-60 (percent) off have climbed to 75 to even 80 (percent) off," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at The NPD Group.

This week's cold, snowy weather on the heels of a warm start to December could spur people to use the gift cards they received or their remaining discretionary income to buy everything from jackets to snow blowers, said Evan Gold, senior vice president of client services at Planalytics, which tracks weather for businesses including retailers.

In December, he said, "people are out spending anyway, weather can trigger what you purchase, not if you purchase, but what you purchase."

SANDY AND CLIFF

A variety of factors were thought to be at fault for the weak season, starting with Superstorm Sandy, which depressed sales in the U.S. Northeast in late October and early November.

Sales recovered in the second part of November, with early hours and promotions helping drive traffic during the "Black Friday" weekend after Thanksgiving, analysts said.

But there was a deep lull in early December as a winter storm in parts of the United States may have limited sales, said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis at MasterCard SpendingPulse.

On top of that, there were fears that taxes will rise in the new year if Washington cannot negotiate a solution to the end-of-year "fiscal cliff" dilemma.

A recent Ipsos poll for Reuters found that only 17 percent of shoppers were spending less due to cliff fears, though analysts said the damage was still done.

"The government usually does not have a role in holidays but this year they did. They got right in the midst of it, the timing couldn't have been any worse," NPD's Cohen said.

BRIGHT SPOTS

One bright spot has been online sales, which continue to grow at a faster pace.

On Christmas Day, online sales jumped 22.4 percent, outpacing the 16.4 percent increase in 2011, according to IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark, which tracks more than 1 million e-commerce transactions a day from 500 U.S. retailers.

Whether online or off, some of the winning retailers were expected to be Wal-Mart, which attracted shoppers with early deals on the night of Thanksgiving and kept its focus on value, and apparel chains like the Gap, whose bright sweaters were successful, according to analysts.

Toys sold well, and hot items that were harder to find later in the season included certain Mattel Inc Barbie dolls and LeapFrog Enterprises Inc's LeapPad2 tablet computer, according to B. Riley Caris analyst Linda Bolton Weiser.

For retailers that have struggled, analysts said all hope was not lost. Many have fiscal quarters that end in January, so they still have time to benefit from a post-Christmas rebound. Because Christmas fell on a Tuesday, some said they could even see a boost this week from people who have extra time off.

"There's still a little bit more time to go until the holiday season is officially over," Morningstar analyst Peter Wahlstrom said.

Wal-Mart shares ended down 0.8 percent at $67.99 on Wednesday, while Macy's shares were down 1.1 percent at $37.11, Barnes & Noble shares were down 3.5 percent at $14.49, Amazon.com Inc shares ended 3.9 percent lower at $248.63, and Ann Inc shares lost 5.1 percent to close at $32.06.

(Reporting by Brad Dorfman, Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Jessica Wohl in Chicago; additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Dhanya Skariachan in New York; writing by Ben Berkowitz; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe and Matthew Lewis)

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India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh attends the plenary session of the ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit in New Delhi December 20, 2012.

NEW DELHI | Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:45am EST

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Prime Minister Manmohan Singh struck a downbeat note on the challenges facing the Indian economy on Thursday, dubbing a five-year plan for average growth of 8 percent "ambitious".

India's GDP growth has languished below 6 percent for three straight quarters, a far cry from the near-double-digit pace of expansion before the 2008 global financial downturn.

Economic growth for the fiscal year ending in March is expected to be 5.7-5.9 percent, India's slowest since 2002/03.

"I must emphasize, that achieving a target of 8 percent growth, following less than 6 percent in the first year, is still an ambitious target," Singh told a conference of state chief ministers to finalize the government's 2012-2017 economic plan.

The downturn prodded Singh, castigated for years of policy inertia, to launch the most daring initiatives of his tenure in September, including raising subsidized diesel prices and opening the retail and other sectors to foreign players.

However, one of Singh's key policy advisers, Montek Singh Ahluwalia warned at the meeting that growth could get stuck at 5.0-5.5 percent if a policy logjam continues.

"A high growth scenario will not be realized if we follow a business-as-usual policy," Singh said, echoing his adviser.

"Our first priority must be to reverse this slowdown. We cannot change the global economy but we can do something about the domestic constraints which have contributed to the downturn."

Analysts say the government must take more reform steps quickly, including speeding up the process for approval of investment projects, overhauling the tax system and reducing a swollen fiscal deficit by reining in its subsidy bill.

Singh said that subsidies on energy products should be limited, with a phased adjustment of prices.

"Unfortunately, energy is under-priced in our country. Our coal, petroleum products, and natural gas are priced well below international prices. This also means that electricity is effectively under-priced," he said.

"Immediate adjustment of prices to close the gap is not feasible, I realize this, but some phased price adjustment is necessary."

He added that early implementation of a Goods and Services Tax (GST), a long-delayed plan intended to replace myriad state and central taxes, was critical to raise the tax/GDP ratio.

(Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh; Editing by John Chalmers)

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PHNOM PENH | Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:41am EST

PHNOM PENH (Reuters) - A Cambodian court ordered the return to prison on Thursday of two men seen by rights groups as scapegoats for the 2005 murder of a top unionist, the latest controversial ruling in a country chided for its low judicial standards.

The Appeals Court upheld a lower court's handing down of 20-year jail terms for Born Samnang and Sok Sam Oeun for killing Free Trade Union (FTU) leader Chea Vichea, despite weak evidence.

Following a public outcry, the Supreme Court released the two on bail in 2008 after three years in jail to allow further investigation. The Appeals Court on Thursday made no mention of any new evidence against them.

"Please help me, this is very unjust," Born Samnang shouted as he was taken away by police. He wept and said he would seek help from King Norodom Sihamoni to clear his name.

Cambodia's positive image among investors as one of Asia's most promising emerging economies and a cheaper alternative to China is being dented by allegations of rampant rights abuses and political interference in the judiciary to silence dissent or allow well-connected figures to walk free.

Violence against union leaders is not uncommon in Cambodia and activists say scapegoats have been found to ensure those instigating the attacks go unpunished.

As Cambodia's $4.2 billion garment manufacturing sector grows, unions and workers are becoming increasingly emboldened, holding protests and strikes over pay and working conditions.

Rights groups were incensed last week when a local politician connected with the ruling party was cleared by a court of firing bullets into a crowd of striking factory workers earlier this year, wounding three women.

Chea Mony, the current FTU president and brother of the late Chea Vichea, said he was shocked by Thursday's ruling and criticized the authorities for failing to bring the real culprits to justice.

"We have not seen any light of justice at all in this case," Chea Mony told Reuters. "The court is well aware of what's going on and that it lacks its independence."

(Editing by Martin Petty)

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1 of 3. Fatima, 13, holds a picture of her mother Narges Rezaeimomenabad, suspected of killing a U.S. contractor at a police headquarters, at her home in Kabul December 26, 2012.

KABUL | Wed Dec 26, 2012 10:42am EST

KABUL (Reuters) - The Afghan policewoman suspected of killing a U.S. contractor at police headquarters in Kabul suffered from mental illness and was driven to suicidal despair by poverty, her children told Reuters on Wednesday.

The woman was identified by authorities as Narges Rezaeimomenabad, a 40-year-old grandmother and mother of three who moved here from Iran 10 years ago and married an Afghan man.

On Monday morning, she loaded a pistol in a bathroom at the police compound, hid it in her long scarf and shot an American police trainer, apparently becoming the first Afghan woman to carry out such an attack.

Narges also tried to shoot police officials after killing the American. Luckily for them, her pistol jammed. Her husband is also under investigation.

Her son Sayed, 16, and daughter Fatima, 13, described how they tried to call their parents 100 times after news broke of the shooting, then waited in vain for them to come home.

They recalled Narges's severe mood swings, and how at times she beat them and even pulled out a knife. But the children said she was consistent in bemoaning poverty.

"She was usually complaining about poverty. She was complaining to my father about our conditions. She was saying that my father was poor," Sayid said in an interview in their damp, cold two-room cement house.

On the floor beside him were his mother's prescriptions and a thick plastic bag filled with pills she tried to swallow to end the misery about a month ago. On another occasion, she cut her wrist with a razor, Sayed said.

"My father was usually calm and sometimes would say that she was guilty too because it wasn't a forced marriage. They fell in love and got married."

There was no sign in their neighborhood of the billions of dollars of Western aid that have poured into Afghanistan since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001, or of government investment.

RAW SEWAGE, STAGNANT WATER, DIRT ROADS

The lane outside their home stank of raw sewage.

Dirty, stagnant water filled holes in dirt roads nearby, where children in tattered clothes played and butchers stood by cow's hooves in shops choked by dust.

Afghanistan is one of the world's poorest nations, with a third of its 30 million residents living under the poverty line.

The sole distractions from the daily grind appeared to be a deck of playing cards and a compact disc with songs from Iranian pop singers, scattered on the floor of a room where Narges would lock herself in and weep, or sit in silence.

At times, Narges would try to focus on building her children's confidence, telling them to be guided by the Muslim holy book, the Koran, to tackle life's problems.

Sayed and Fatima said she never spoke badly of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan or of President Hamid Karzai's government.

Neighbor Mohammad Ismail Kohistani was dumbfounded to hear on the radio that Afghan officials were combing Narges' phone records to try to determine whether al Qaeda or the Taliban could have brainwashed her into carrying out a mission.

But he was acutely aware of her mental problems and often heard her scream at her husband, whose low-level job in the crime investigation unit of the police brought home little cash.

Kohistani, who operates a small sewing shop with battered machines, never imagined his neighbor could be accused of a high-profile attack that raised new questions about the direction of an unpopular war.

"I became very depressed and sad," said Kohistani, sitting on the floor few feet from a tiny wood-burning stove in Narges's home, alongside family photographs and a police training manual.

Fatima would often seek refuge in Kohistani's house when her mother's behavior became unbearable. "She did not hate us, but usually she was angry and would not talk to us," said Fatima, her eyes moist with tears.

Nevertheless, she missed her mother. The children were staying with a cousin.

"I ask the government to free my mother, otherwise our future will be destroyed," said Fatima.

Officials described it as another "insider shooting", in which Afghan forces turn on Westerners they are meant to be working with to stabilize the country. There have been over 52 such attacks so far this year.

The shooting at the police headquarters may have alarmed Afghanistan's Western allies. But some Afghans have grown numb to the violence.

Kohistani's 70-year-old father Omara Khan, who sports a white beard, sat twirling prayer beads beneath a photograph of Narges in a black veil beside one of her husband.

Asked what he thought of the attack, he laughed.

"This is common in Afghanistan," said Khan, who lived through decades of upheaval, including the 10-year Soviet occupation and a civil war that destroyed half of Kabul and killed some 50,000 civilians.

"People are killed every day."

(Editing by Ron Popeski)

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