A job seeker (R) meets with a prospective employer at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012.

WASHINGTON | Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:11am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, offering hope the sluggish labor market recovery may have picked up a step.

Initial claims for state jobless aid dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 341,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's claims figure was revised to show 2,000 more applications were received than previously reported.

Last week's drop in claims exceeded economists' expectations for only a 6,000 decline and pushed first-time filings down to the lower end of their range for this year.

"It does seem as if claims are trending down a bit. We think payroll growth will pick up this year and this sort of gradual downtrend in claims seems consistent with that," said Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS in New York.

But some economists said a blizzard that slammed the East Coast late last week and difficulties smoothing out the data for seasonal fluctuations could have artificially depressed claims.

While they were encouraged by the decline, they urged caution against reading too much into the data.

"Claims may not be giving a reliable signal about the labor market," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

A Labor Department analyst said claims for Illinois and Connecticut, one of the states hardest hit by the snowstorm, had been estimated. He said given that most claims are filed online, the blizzard appeared to have little effect on the broader data.

U.S. financial market were little moved by the data as investors focused on news the euro zone economy slipped deeper into recession in the fourth quarter. Stocks on Wall Street were little changed, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury debt prices rose.

LAYOFFS HAVE EBBED

The data offered more evidence that U.S. companies are no longer aggressively laying off workers. However, they still appear to be in no hurry to step-up hiring against the backdrop of still lackluster demand.

The economy has struggled to grow much more than 2 percent since the 2007-09 recession ended, and the jobless rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 7.9 percent in January.

High unemployment prompted the Federal Reserve last year to launch an open-ended bond buying program that it said it would keep up until it saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market.

It also has committed to hold interest rates near zero until unemployment reaches 6.5 percent, provided inflation does not threaten to push over 2.5 percent.

Job gains averaged 181,000 per month in 2012, far less than the at least 250,000 that economists say is needed to significantly reduce the ranks of unemployed.

"The rate of job losses has slowed in early 2013, which is consistent with a modest pickup in net job creation," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

"Our projection for 2013 is that the average pace of job growth will be around 175,000 per month and we judge this drop in claims to be broadly consistent with this forecast."

Last week, the four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, rose 1,500 to 352,500. The average had approached a five-year low in the prior week.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped 130,000 to 3.11 million in the week ended February 2.

That was the lowest level since July 2008 and could be a function of people either securing jobs or simply exhausting their benefits. So-called continuing claims had hovered around 3.2 million since late November.

(Editing by Andrea Ricci and Tim Ahmann)

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WASHINGTON | Fri Jan 18, 2013 2:27pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In almost all U.S. states, jobless rates ended 2012 lower than where they began, according to Labor Department data released on Friday that also showed unemployment rates fell from November in less than half the states.

From December 2011, 42 states and the District of Columbia registered unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier while six states recorded increases, and two states had no change, according to the report.

Since November, though, 22 states recorded unemployment rate decreases, while 16 states and the District of Columbia registered increases and 12 states had no change.

The monthly changes were less uniform across the country, suggesting the speed of economic recovery varied geographically.

The national unemployment rate was 7.8 percent in December, unchanged from November but down from 8.5 percent in December 2011.

North Dakota's rate ticked up from November to 3.2 percent, although the state continued to have the lowest unemployment rate in the nation due to the natural gas boom.

The rate was very close to that in December 2011, 3.3 percent, and, according to Michael Ziesch, co-manager of the state's Labor Market Information agency, "December rates have always posted an increase from (the) prior month as we see a normal increase in seasonal unemployment."

Nevada and Rhode Island held the highest unemployment rates in the country, 10.2 percent each in December, although both saw the rates drop from the month before. For Rhode Island, it was the lowest rate since March 2009.

Nevada had the biggest decline of all the states from November, when its rate was 10.8 percent, helped by growth in the state's large leisure and hospitality sector and by retail. Moreover, its rate in December was the lowest since February 2009.

"I'm pleased that we've ended the year on a positive note, with four straight months of decline in the unemployment rate and a gain of nearly 19,000 jobs in December compared to a year ago, but we have much more room for improvement," Governor Brian Sandoval said in a statement.

In December, Florida's rate was the lowest since November 2008, 8 percent, and nearly 2 percentage points below its rate in December 2011.

"Trends show that we are also experiencing growth in many different economic indicators that are key to job creation. Housing starts are on the rise, businesses and families continue to move to Florida and more jobs are being created," said Florida Gov. Rick Scott in a statement.

Cuts to local government staffs and construction crews in December were offset by a growing services sector, state data showed.

The trend will likely continue into 2013, with Standard & Poor's saying on Thursday it expects "total nonfarm employment growth to rise 1.6 percent in 2013," in the eastern Atlantic region, which includes Florida, due to increasing tourism.

When looking at nonfarm payroll employment, 27 states added jobs in December from November, while 23 lost jobs. New York's increase of 35,100 jobs was the greatest in the country, followed by New Jersey at 30,200. California shed the most the jobs, 17,500, followed by Florida, 15,300.

The large jumps in New York and New Jersey, and increases in neighboring Connecticut, likely showed the impact of Superstorm Sandy, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan. Employers likely cut jobs in November immediately after the storm, and then boosted their payrolls in December, they said.

"Today's release, beyond confirming that Sandy did some temporary damage to employment in New Jersey and New York, doesn't really provide any new information: the labor market continues its slow improvement along its all too familiar rocky road," said Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood, who track states' economic conditions for The Liscio Report.

(Additional reporting by Karen Pierog in Chicago, Michael Connor in Miami, and Hilary Russ in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Job seekers stand in line to meet with prospective employers at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012.

WASHINGTON | Thu Jan 3, 2013 8:32am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, but the data continues to be too distorted by the holidays to offer a clear read of labor market conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised to show 12,000 more applications than previously reported.

Claims data reported for the week ended December 22 had been artificially depressed by the holidays, which resulted in data for 19 states being estimated.

A Labor Department official said claims data for nine states, including California and Virginia, had been estimated last week because of the Christmas and New Year holidays. This suggests the numbers are subject to revisions next week.

The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, rose 250 to 360,000. The claims data has no bearing on December's employment report, scheduled for release on Friday.

Employers are expected to have added 150,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, little changed from 146,000 in November, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

Job gains in the first 11 months of last year averaged about 151,000 per month, not enough to significantly lower unemployment. Employers' hesitancy to ramp up hiring had been blamed on the so-called fiscal cliff, a combination of sharp government spending cuts and higher taxes.

Although Congress this week approved a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, the budget problems are far from resolved. That could continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty and hurt job growth.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid increased 44,000 to 3.25 million in the week ended December 22.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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1 of 2. People wait in line to enter a job fair in New York August 15, 2011.

WASHINGTON | Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:36pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits slid last week to the lowest level in more than four and a half years, according to government data that may provide a boost to President Barack Obama a month before voters go to the polls.

The Labor Department report on Thursday was the latest data to suggest improvement in the jobs market, though the surprisingly large 30,000 drop in new claims may have reflected distortions due to seasonal adjustments that are likely to be smoothed out in coming weeks.

"The overall trend seems to be that the labor market is improving," said Brian Kim, a currency strategist at RBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut.

A Labor Department analyst said seasonal factors had predicted a very large increase in claims last week, which he said would be typical for the first week of the quarter. Unadjusted claims did rise, but far less than expected, resulting in the sharp drop in the seasonally adjusted figure.

He noted that one state reported a decline in claims last week when a rise had been expected. No states had been estimated for the report, he said.

"We will likely see some payback in the claims data reported next week. But through this potential volatility, it does look like the trend in the claims is improving somewhat," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan.

Silver said that California, given its large population and past "massive swings" in its claims data, was probably the state that caused the sharp drop in the seasonally adjusted figure.

But Pam Harris, director of the California Employment Development Department, said the state was not to blame.

Harris said California had reported all its unemployment insurance claims data on time. She said a published report stating it had not was "incorrect and inaccurate."

A second Labor Department official said "a processing issue" resulted in the state, which he did not identify, reporting fewer claims than expected.

"We cannot dictate to a state how they process their claims ... This is one of the years they happened to be behind everyone else," he said, adding the Columbus Day holiday this week may have been one factor.

"This individual state, whenever there are increases in claim, usually range from 15,000 to almost 20,000," he added.

The jobs data was tempered by a second report on Thursday that hinted at weaker U.S. and global demand.

The U.S. trade deficit widened in August to $44.2 billion, as U.S. goods exports fell for the fifth consecutive month and imports declined fractionally.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 339,000, the lowest number of new claims since February 2008, about a year before Obama took office in the midst of the global financial crisis.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims edging up to 370,0000 last week.

Zach Pandl, strategist at Columbia Management in Minneapolis, said "you do have to be cautious about possible distortions. But with that caveat, the jobless claims numbers have been modestly encouraging over the last few weeks."

The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 11,500 to 364,000, the lowest in six months.

U.S. stocks rose in response to the jobs data, while Treasury debt prices slipped and the dollar was lower against a basket of currencies.

A government report on Friday showed employers added a modest 114,000 jobs to payrolls in September but the unemployment rate dropped sharply to 7.8 percent, also the lowest level since Obama took office.

Former General Electric Chief Executive Jack Welch and others suggested last week the payrolls data was fixed to make Obama look better ahead of the election, a charge the Labor Department strongly denied.

Obama's opponent, Republican Mitt Romney, has accused the president of mishandling the economy.

Thursday's claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell to 3.27 million in the week ended September 29, the latest data available. It was the lowest since May.

DECLINING TRADE

A Reuters poll on Thursday showed economists were slightly less optimistic about U.S. growth, lowering their median growth forecasts to an annualized 1.6 percent for the first quarter of 2013, compared to 1.7 percent last month.

The group of more than 70 respondents also trimmed their second-quarter forecasts to 2.1 percent from 2.3 percent, suggesting the U.S. economy will continue its slow, steady plod despite a recession in Europe, a slowdown in China and more restrictive fiscal policy at home.

The monthly trade deficit increased to $44.2 billion in August, from an upwardly revised estimate of $42.5 billion in July, the Commerce Department said. Analysts were expecting an August trade gap of about $44.0 billion.

Overall U.S. exports dropped 1.0 percent as troubles in Europe continue to weigh on global growth, while imports fell 0.1 percent in a sign of faltering U.S. demand for consumer products, autos and capital goods.

"It looks like net exports will contribute negatively to GDP (gross domestic product) growth, subtracting as much as half a percentage point," said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America in New York.

A separate Labor Department report showed that overall U.S. import prices rose 1.1 percent for the second consecutive month in September, while U.S. export prices rose 0.8 percent.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfus and Ellen Freilich in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci, James Dalgleish and Lisa Shumaker)

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Conference attendees cross a street in San Francisco, California March 15, 2012.

WASHINGTON | Thu Aug 2, 2012 10:42am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose less than expected last week, but the data continues to be influenced by distortions from seasonal auto shutdowns.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 357,000 from the previously reported 353,000.

"The claims number is not that bad. There does seem to be some difficulty dealing with the seasonals this time of year whether it's auto plant closures or lack thereof," said Cary Leahey, a senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 370,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 2,750 to 365,500, the lowest in four months.

Temporary plant shutdowns by automakers for annual retooling cause wide swings in claims data in July, which makes it difficult to get a clear picture of the labor market's health.

The model used by the government to smooth the numbers for typical seasonal patterns has trouble anticipating the timing of the temporary closures and in addition, some automakers kept production lines running in July.

A Labor Department official said last week was the last where the seasonal expectation was shaped by seasonal layoffs in the auto manufacturing sector.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data, with traders focusing attention on a press conference by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

The claims data has no bearing on the July employment report as it falls outside the survey period.

The government is expected to report on Friday that employers added 100,000 new workers to their payrolls last month, according to a Reuters survey, up from 80,000 in June.

Job growth averaged 75,000 per month in the second quarter, a sharp deceleration from the average monthly increase of 226,000 in the first three months of the year.

An uncertain fiscal policy path and ongoing debt problems in Europe have hurt demand and left businesses cautious about hiring new workers.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve signaled it was willing to ease monetary policy further, noting that economic activity had slowed in the first half of the year. Many economists expect the U.S. central bank to launch a third round of bond buying, also known as quantitative easing, in September.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 19,000 to 3.3 million in the week ended July 21.

A second report showed planned layoffs at U.S. companies dropped for a second straight month in July, even as job cuts in the financial sector persisted.

Employers announced 36,855 planned job cuts last month, down 1.9 percent from June, consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. So far this year, announced layoffs are up 2.5 percent from the same period in 2011.

The financial sector cut 6,156 jobs in July, the largest number since January.

"The situation in Europe is far from being resolved and ongoing weakness here could continue to take a toll on the financial sector," John Challenger, chief executive of the company, said in a statement.

Challenger also cautioned that layoffs typically slow during the summer months, while the heaviest job cuts historically happen in the fourth quarter.

"This may simply be the lull before the storm," he said.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani, additional reporting by Leah Schnurr and Ellen Freilich in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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