A shopper walks down an aisle in a newly opened Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago in this September 21, 2011 file photo.

NEW YORK | Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:44pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated for a second straight month to its lowest in over a year in January, with many consumers citing fallout from the recent "fiscal cliff" debate in Washington, a survey released on Friday showed.

The sharp drop in sentiment over the last two months coincides with rancorous federal budget negotiations that have led to higher taxes for many Americans.

Just weeks after that deal, President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers are expected to enter another tough round of negotiations over spending cuts, which could dent consumer confidence still further.

"The handling of the fiscal cliff talks and the realization that paychecks are going to be smaller due to the sunset of the payroll tax holiday are probably weighing on consumer attitudes at the moment," said Thomas Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York.

While most of the scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts forming the fiscal cliff were avoided when Congress struck a deal on January 1, most U.S. workers saw their take-home salary diminished by the expiry of two percentage-point cut in payroll taxes.

"With the debt ceiling yet to be tackled and more political acrimony on the way, we suspect that confidence has room to deteriorate further," Simons said.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 71.3, down from 72.9 the month before. The index was at its lowest since December 2011. It was also below the median forecast of 75 among economists polled by Reuters.

"The most unique aspect of the early January data was that an all-time record number of consumers - 35 percent - negatively referred to the fiscal cliff negotiations," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

"Importantly, the debt ceiling debate is still upcoming and could further weaken confidence," he said.

House Republicans have signaled they might support a short-term extension of U.S. borrowing authority when the government exhausts that capacity sometime between mid-February and early March. A failure by Congress to raise this debt ceiling could result in a market-rattling government default.

On Friday, Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said the House would consider a bill next week to extend the debt limit by three months in order to force the Senate to pass a budget.

U.S. stocks remained little changed after the data. The S&P 500 .SPX hit a five-year high in the last session. But on Friday, a weak outlook from Intel (INTC.O) offset encouraging data out of China and a fourth-quarter profit at Morgan Stanley (MS.N).

So far there has been a disconnect between what consumers say and do. U.S. retail sales increased a better-than-expected 0.5 percent in December. But given the recent weakening in sentiment investors will be watching for any signs that spending is starting to slip.

"The impact on consumers will be from the hike in the social security tax. That is undoubtedly going to hit discretionary spending. So this may be a signal of things to come," said Michael Woolfolk, a senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York.

The consumer survey's barometer of current economic conditions fell to 84.8 from 87.0 and was below a forecast of 88.0. The gauge hit its lowest since July.

The survey's gauge of consumer expectations also slipped, hitting its lowest since November 2011 at 62.7 from 63.8, and was below an expected 65.2.

The survey's one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent, while the survey's five-to-10-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 2.9 percent.

(Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson and Ellen Freilich; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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Shoppers checkout at a Target store in Falls Church, Virginia May 28, 2010. U.S. consumer spending was unexpectedly flat in April but real disposable incomes recorded their biggest increase in nearly a year a government report showed on Friday.

WASHINGTON | Fri Sep 28, 2012 4:31pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. households stretched to pay for costlier gasoline on meager income growth in August, undercutting spending on other items and pointing to lackluster economic growth.

Other data on Friday showed factory activity in the Midwest contracted this month for the first time in three years.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.5 percent last month after gaining 0.4 percent in July. The increase was the largest in six months, but it reflected a rise in gasoline costs that pushed inflation up by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years.

Adjusting for the jump in prices, spending edged up a scant 0.1 percent. With inflation wiping out their buying power, consumers curbed their saving to fund purchases -- a potentially bad omen for future spending.

"Consumers are supporting the recovery, but they are just not able to lead it because of the soft jobs market and little income. They are running low on fire power," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Income ticked up 0.1 percent but was down 0.3 percent after accounting for inflation and taxes. It was the first decline in real disposable income since November.

With inflation-adjusted spending barely rising last month, real consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, is unlikely to grow much more than the tepid 1.5 percent annual pace recorded in the April-June period.

Walgreen Co, the largest U.S. drugstore chain, posted a lower quarterly profit on Friday and said it had faced a challenging year in which consumers cut back on everyday purchases. At stores open at least a year, sales fell 8.7 percent in Walgreen's latest quarter.

FACTORIES LOSING STEAM

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its Midwest factory barometer found activity contracted this month for the first time since September 2009, reflecting weak new orders and a slowdown in hiring.

It was consistent with other recent reports flagging a cooling in manufacturing, a sector that had been the pillar of the economy's recovery.

"To the extent that the moderation in manufacturing activity is reflecting weakening domestic and global demand, it may be a harbinger of continued sup-par GDP growth," said Millan Mulraine, a senior economist at TD Securities in New York.

But households appear little perturbed by the gathering dark clouds. Consumer confidence touched a four-month high in September, boosted by higher stock market prices and gains in home values. That resilience could be a boost to President Barack Obama as he seeks a second term in November.

Economists, however, cautioned that household morale could sour towards the end of the year if the U.S. Congress fails to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff -- $600 billion or so in expiring tax cuts and government spending reductions set to take hold in 2013.

The mixed data sent U.S. stocks lower. However, Wall Street recorded its best third quarter since 2010. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt pushed higher, supported by doubts over the chances for success of debt-ridden Spain's 2013 budget. The dollar rose against the euro, advancing for a second straight week.

TROUBLE GAINING STEAM

Slower consumer spending and a drop in farm inventories due to a severe drought in the Midwest held gross domestic product growth to a 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter, a step down from 2 percent in the first three months of the year.

Growth estimates for the third quarter range from 1.2 percent to 2.1 percent. Spending last month was funded by cutting back on saving, which economists said put households on shaky ground, particularly if income taxes go up in January.

"It highlights how imperative it is that Congress deals with this issue. This is not an economy that can bear the burden of fiscal tightening right now," said Julia Coronado, chief North America economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

Inflation pressures picked up last month on the back of the 28.2 cents per gallon rise in gasoline prices. A price index for personal spending increased 0.4 percent, the largest rise since March last year, taking the 12-month gain up to 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent in July.

However, a measure which strips out food and energy costs, rose only 0.1 percent from July. Year-on-year that core measure was up 1.6 percent, the same as in July and the fifth straight month of increases below 2 percent.

The Federal Reserve has a 2 percent inflation target and the still-moderate pace of inflation should give it comfort to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance for a while as it seeks to spur job growth and domestic demand.

(Additional reporting by Jessica Wohl in Chicago; Editing by Tim Ahmann and Kenneth Barry)

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Shoppers checkout at a Target store in Falls Church, Virginia May 28, 2010. U.S. consumer spending was unexpectedly flat in April but real disposable incomes recorded their biggest increase in nearly a year a government report showed on Friday.

WASHINGTON | Fri Sep 28, 2012 4:31pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. households stretched to pay for costlier gasoline on meager income growth in August, undercutting spending on other items and pointing to lackluster economic growth.

Other data on Friday showed factory activity in the Midwest contracted this month for the first time in three years.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.5 percent last month after gaining 0.4 percent in July. The increase was the largest in six months, but it reflected a rise in gasoline costs that pushed inflation up by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years.

Adjusting for the jump in prices, spending edged up a scant 0.1 percent. With inflation wiping out their buying power, consumers curbed their saving to fund purchases -- a potentially bad omen for future spending.

"Consumers are supporting the recovery, but they are just not able to lead it because of the soft jobs market and little income. They are running low on fire power," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Income ticked up 0.1 percent but was down 0.3 percent after accounting for inflation and taxes. It was the first decline in real disposable income since November.

With inflation-adjusted spending barely rising last month, real consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, is unlikely to grow much more than the tepid 1.5 percent annual pace recorded in the April-June period.

Walgreen Co, the largest U.S. drugstore chain, posted a lower quarterly profit on Friday and said it had faced a challenging year in which consumers cut back on everyday purchases. At stores open at least a year, sales fell 8.7 percent in Walgreen's latest quarter.

FACTORIES LOSING STEAM

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its Midwest factory barometer found activity contracted this month for the first time since September 2009, reflecting weak new orders and a slowdown in hiring.

It was consistent with other recent reports flagging a cooling in manufacturing, a sector that had been the pillar of the economy's recovery.

"To the extent that the moderation in manufacturing activity is reflecting weakening domestic and global demand, it may be a harbinger of continued sup-par GDP growth," said Millan Mulraine, a senior economist at TD Securities in New York.

But households appear little perturbed by the gathering dark clouds. Consumer confidence touched a four-month high in September, boosted by higher stock market prices and gains in home values. That resilience could be a boost to President Barack Obama as he seeks a second term in November.

Economists, however, cautioned that household morale could sour towards the end of the year if the U.S. Congress fails to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff -- $600 billion or so in expiring tax cuts and government spending reductions set to take hold in 2013.

The mixed data sent U.S. stocks lower. However, Wall Street recorded its best third quarter since 2010. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt pushed higher, supported by doubts over the chances for success of debt-ridden Spain's 2013 budget. The dollar rose against the euro, advancing for a second straight week.

TROUBLE GAINING STEAM

Slower consumer spending and a drop in farm inventories due to a severe drought in the Midwest held gross domestic product growth to a 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter, a step down from 2 percent in the first three months of the year.

Growth estimates for the third quarter range from 1.2 percent to 2.1 percent. Spending last month was funded by cutting back on saving, which economists said put households on shaky ground, particularly if income taxes go up in January.

"It highlights how imperative it is that Congress deals with this issue. This is not an economy that can bear the burden of fiscal tightening right now," said Julia Coronado, chief North America economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

Inflation pressures picked up last month on the back of the 28.2 cents per gallon rise in gasoline prices. A price index for personal spending increased 0.4 percent, the largest rise since March last year, taking the 12-month gain up to 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent in July.

However, a measure which strips out food and energy costs, rose only 0.1 percent from July. Year-on-year that core measure was up 1.6 percent, the same as in July and the fifth straight month of increases below 2 percent.

The Federal Reserve has a 2 percent inflation target and the still-moderate pace of inflation should give it comfort to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance for a while as it seeks to spur job growth and domestic demand.

(Additional reporting by Jessica Wohl in Chicago; Editing by Tim Ahmann and Kenneth Barry)

View the original article here